####018005525#### FZAK80 PAFC 122228 ICEAFC Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program 228 PM AKDT Wednesday 12 March 2025 FORECAST VALID...Monday 17 March 2025 ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...High to moderate. SYNOPSIS...High pressure will build over the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas through Monday while the main storm track remains along and south of the Aleutian Islands. -BEAUFORT SEA- PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore- PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore- PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm- PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm- PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm- PKZ859-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett from 15 to 75 nm- PKZ860-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island from 15 to 80 nm- PKZ861-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point from 15 to 75 nm- Ice covered. FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is high. East to northeast winds will persist through Monday. Expect the ice pack to continue to thicken and generally move westward through the forecast period on the order of 10 nm/day. Shorefast ice will remain intact with no break-off events in sight. -CHUKCHI SEA- PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore- PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore- PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm- PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm- PKZ809- Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm- PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 nm- PKZ811-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort out to 15 nm- PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 nm- PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm- PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 nm- PKZ856-Wales to Cape Thompson greater than 15 nm- PKZ857-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort from 15 to 85 nm- PKZ858-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin from 15 to 85 nm- PKZ859-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett from 15 to 75 nm- Ice covered. FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is high. North to northeast winds will persist across most of the Chukchi Sea through Monday. Expect the ice pack to continue to thicken while drifting to the southwest. Polynyas will continue to form off west-facing coastlines through Monday but will quickly fill in with new sea ice. -BERING SEA- PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 nm- PKZ765-North and West of Nunivak Island- PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 nm- PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 nm- PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 nm- PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 nm- PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 nm- PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 nm- PKZ816-South side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm- PKZ817-North side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm- PKZ850-Etolin Strait to Kwemeluk Pass from 15 to 90 nm- PKZ851-Southwest of Saint Lawrence Island from 15 to 100 nm- PKZ852-Norton Sound greater than 15 nm- PKZ853-Kwemeluk Pass to Kwikpak Pass from 15 to 90 nm- PKZ854-Sledge Island to Wales greater than 15 nm- Ice covered. PKZ760-Bristol Bay greater than 15 NM- PKZ761-Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 nm- PKZ762-Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Peirce out to 15 nm- PKZ764-Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 nm- PKZ767-Saint Matthew Island Waters- The main ice edge extends from near Cape Newenham to 59 27’N 164 51’W to 59 6’N 166 7’W to 60 7’N 170 23’W to 59 35’N 172 51’W to 60 41’N 179 38’W and continues west in Russian waters. The ice edge is low concentration strips of ice. From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from Cape Newenham to 45 nm southwest of Kipnuk to 80 nm southwest of Kipnuk to 50 nm east of Saint Matthew Island to 50 nm south of Saint Matthew Island to 290 nm southwest of Gambell. The ice edge is low concentration strips of ice. FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is high. North to northeast winds will continue across the main ice pack through Wednesday. The overall ice edge is expected to advance 20 to 30 nm west-southwest through the forecast period. Sea ice along the edge will generally be in the form of belts and strips coming off of the main pack. In Bristol Bay, new sea ice growth is expected especially during times when air temperatures are in the single digits to mid 20s Fahrenheit. If the storm track remains far enough south, the air mass should remain cold enough to get widespread new ice growth between Cape Newenhan and Naknek. -COOK INLET- PKZ740-Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island- SYNOPSIS...Several systems will move into the Gulf of Alaska, then dissipate through Monday. The main ice edge extends from near Tyonek to near Fire Island to Point Possession. The ice edge is open water. FORECAST FOR COOK INLET (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is high. Northeast winds will persist across the Cook Inlet with temperatures remaining in the upper 20s at night to mid to upper 30s during the day. Areas of new ice are possible north of the Forelands at night but will melt during the day. Expect any remaining very small ice floes to continue to gradually melt while drifting with tides and currents. && Lawson