####018006347#### FZAK80 PAFC 032334 ICEAFC Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program 234 PM AKST Friday 3 January 2025 FORECAST VALID...Wednesday 8 January 2025 ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...High to moderate. SYNOPSIS...High pressure will persist over the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas through Wednesday. A series of lows will generally track eastward and remain south of the Aleutian Islands through Monday. A low will move north into the southeast Bering Sea Monday and Tuesday, with another approaching the southeast Bering Sea on Wednesday. -BEAUFORT SEA- PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore- PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore- PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm- PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm- PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm- PKZ859-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett from 15 to 75 nm- PKZ860-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island from 15 to 80 nm- PKZ861-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point from 15 to 75 nm- Ice covered. FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is high. Winds will generally be light and variable through Wednesday. The ice pack is generally expected to remain stationary through the forecast period. Overall, thickening ice conditions will persist through Wednesday. -CHUKCHI SEA- PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore- PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore- PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm- PKZ809- Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm- PKZ811-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort out to 15 nm- PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 nm- PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm- PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 nm- PKZ856-Wales to Cape Thompson greater than 15 nm- PKZ857-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort from 15 to 85 nm- PKZ858-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin from 15 to 85 nm- PKZ859-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett from 15 to 75 nm- PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm- PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 nm- Ice covered. FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is high. Northeasterly to easterly winds will persist through Friday, then winds will generally be northerly through Wednesday. A polynya off west-facing coastlines north of Cape Lisburne will continue to grow through Saturday, then begin to close off again as easterly winds subside. A polynya off the Point Hope to Cape Krusenstern coastline will continue to form and advance to the southwest through the forecast period. Expect sea ice to continue to thicken through the forecast period as it drifts to the west and southwest, and then southward Sunday through Wednesday. -BERING SEA- PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 nm- PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 nm- PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 nm- PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 nm- PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 nm- PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 nm- PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 nm- PKZ816-South side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm- PKZ817-North side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm- PKZ850-Etolin Strait to Kwemeluk Pass from 15 to 90 nm- PKZ852-Norton Sound greater than 15 nm- PKZ853-Kwemeluk Pass to Kwikpak Pass from 15 to 90 nm- PKZ854-Sledge Island to Wales greater than 15 nm- Ice covered. PKZ760-Bristol Bay greater than 15 NM- PKZ761-Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 nm- PKZ762-Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Peirce out to 15 nm- PKZ764-Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 nm- PKZ765-North and West of Nunivak Island- PKZ767-Saint Matthew Island Waters- PKZ851-Southwest of Saint Lawrence Island from 15 to 100 nm- In the Bering Sea, the ice edge extends from near Cape Newenham to 59 30’N 167 16’W to 62 39’N 172 50’W to 62 58’N 176 40’W and continues into Russian waters. The ice edge is open water. There is also some new sea ice in Bristol Bay between Cape Constantine and Naknek. From land-based points in Alaska, the ice edge extends from near Cape Newenham to 40 nm south of Cape Mohican to 75 nm south- southwest of Gambell to 140 nm southwest of Gambell and continues into Russian waters. The ice edge is open water. There is also some new sea ice in Bristol Bay between Cape Constantine and Naknek. FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is high. Northeasterly winds will persist across the existing ice pack through Wednesday. The existing ice pack will drift generally southwestward through Monday as it continues to thicken. Polynyas off southwest-facing coastlines will continue to grow but quickly fill in with new ice. South of the Kuskokwim Delta, sea ice growth will be minimal. Overall, expect the ice edge to advance southwest approximately 10 nm per day through Wednesday. -COOK INLET- PKZ740-Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island- SYNOPSIS...Low pressure will persist across the or south of the Gulf of Alaska through Monday, with high pressure over the Beaufort Sea. The main ice edge extends from near the West Foreland to 60 35’N 151 38’W to near the East Foreland. The ice edge is open water. From land-based points, the main ice edge extends from near the West Foreland to 8 nm southeast of the West Foreland to near the East Foreland. The ice edge is open water. FORECAST FOR COOK INLET (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is high. Northerly to northeasterly winds across the Cook Inlet region will persist through Sunday, then a series of lows will track across the Cook Inlet region Monday through Wednesday. Temperatures will gradually warm through Monday to the 30s and will likely be in the mid to upper 30s at times Monday through Wednesday. Sea ice will continue to grow through Saturday or Sunday, then will begin to melt as air temperatures reach the upper 20s and lower 30s. The overall ice edge is expected to retreat 15 to 20 nm especially Monday through Wednesday. && Schreck