####018006635#### FZAK80 PAFC 102329 ICEAFC Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program 225 PM AKST Friday 10 January 2025 FORECAST VALID...Wednesday 15 January 2025 ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...High to moderate. SYNOPSIS...A series of lows are expected to transit much of Alaska and its surrounding waters throughout the forecast period. A large low will travel from the eastern Bering Sea north to the Chukchi Sea on Monday, weakening through Wednesday. Another smaller low will enter the southern Bering Sea on Monday and gradually track into the northern Bering Sea by Wednesday. -BEAUFORT SEA- PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore- PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore- PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm- PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm- PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm- PKZ859-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett from 15 to 75 nm- PKZ860-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island from 15 to 80 nm- PKZ861-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point from 15 to 75 nm- Ice covered. FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is high. Northeasterly to easterly winds will persist through Monday, with the strongest northeasterly winds expected from Sunday afternoon into Monday afternoon. From late Monday afternoon through Wednesday, winds become more variable in speed and direction as a weak low feature tracks northeastward across the Beaufort Sea. The ice pack will continue to compact and movement over should be minimal, however ice may begin to drift towards the northeast Tuesday and Wednesday with the newly developed southwesterly flow. Overall, thickening ice conditions are expected through Monday. -CHUKCHI SEA- PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore- PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore- PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm- PKZ809- Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm- PKZ811-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort out to 15 nm- PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 nm- PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm- PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 nm- PKZ856-Wales to Cape Thompson greater than 15 nm- PKZ857-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort from 15 to 85 nm- PKZ858-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin from 15 to 85 nm- PKZ859-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett from 15 to 75 nm- PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm- PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 nm- Ice covered. FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is moderate. Northerly to northeasterly winds will generally persist through Sunday. On Monday through Wednesday, a low feature tracks north through the Bering Strait towards the western Beaufort Sea and will cause winds to become variable in speed and direction. Generally, expect westerly winds in the southern Chukchi Sea and easterly winds across the northern Chukchi Sea. For the Kotzebue sound, easterly winds will develop from Saturday through Monday before becoming mostly southerly on Tuesday and Wednesday. Polynyas will likely form along western-facing coastlines within the sound. -BERING SEA- PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 nm- PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 nm- PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 nm- PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 nm- PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 nm- PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 nm- PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 nm- PKZ816-South side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm- PKZ817-North side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm- PKZ850-Etolin Strait to Kwemeluk Pass from 15 to 90 nm- PKZ851-Southwest of Saint Lawrence Island from 15 to 100 nm- PKZ852-Norton Sound greater than 15 nm- PKZ853-Kwemeluk Pass to Kwikpak Pass from 15 to 90 nm- PKZ854-Sledge Island to Wales greater than 15 nm- Ice covered. PKZ760-Bristol Bay greater than 15 NM- PKZ761-Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 nm- PKZ762-Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Peirce out to 15 nm- PKZ764-Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 nm- PKZ765-North and West of Nunivak Island- PKZ767-Saint Matthew Island Waters- In the Bering Sea, the ice edge extends from near Cape Newenham to 59 16’N 167 42’W to 60 52’N 172 11’W to 62 2’N 176 36’W and continues into Russian waters. The ice edge is open water. There is also some new sea ice in Bristol Bay between Osviak and Egegik. From land-based points in Alaska, the ice edge extends from near Cape Newenham to 55 nm south of Cape Mohican to 175 nm south of Gambell to 170 nm south-southwest of Gambell and continues into Russian waters. The ice edge is open water. There is also some new sea ice in Bristol Bay between Osviak and Egegik. FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is low. Winds will be highly variable in speed and direction across the Bering Sea through the forecast period as a result of various lows transiting the region. Polynyas currently growing on southern- facing coasts (i.e. south of Saint Lawrence Island and the Diomedes) will retreat/fill in throughout the forecast period. Sea ice along the northern Bristol Bay coast is expected to continue melting. The main ice edge should more or less linger close to where it currently is as a result of the upcoming variable winds. -COOK INLET- PKZ740-Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island- SYNOPSIS...A series of lows transit the Gulf of Alaska and the Cook Inlet region throughout the forecast period. In Cook Inlet, the main ice edge extends from near the West Foreland to 60 36’N 151 3’W to 60 37’N 151 22’W. The ice edge is open water. From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from near the West Foreland to 8 nm west of Kenai to 5 nm northwest of Kenai. The ice edge is open water. FORECAST FOR COOK INLET (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is moderate. Wind direction will be highly variable across the Cook Inlet region throughout the forecast period. This, in addition to the fact that temperatures will remain near or above freezing, will inhibit significant (if any) sea ice growth. Temperatures are expected to climb into the upper 30s Sunday into Monday, after which time temperatures should fall just below freezing. && Fenrich