####018005550#### FZAK80 PAFC 140022 ICEAFC Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program 322 PM AKST Monday 13 January 2025 FORECAST VALID...Saturday 18 January 2025 ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...Moderate to high. SYNOPSIS...Weak low pressure over the Chukchi Sea and Beaufort Sea will give way to high pressure by mid week. A large North Pacific low will track north across the Aleutian Chain and Bering Sea starting Wednesday, reaching the Chukchi Sea on Friday and Saturday. -BEAUFORT SEA- PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore- PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore- PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm- PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm- PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm- PKZ859-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett from 15 to 75 nm- PKZ860-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island from 15 to 80 nm- PKZ861-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point from 15 to 75 nm- Ice covered. FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is high. Easterly winds will generally persist throughout the forecast period. The strongest winds are expected through today and then again Friday into Saturday. The ice pack will continue to compact and movement overall should be minimal. Overall, thickening ice conditions are expected through Saturday. -CHUKCHI SEA- PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore- PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore- PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm- PKZ809- Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm- PKZ811-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort out to 15 nm- PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 nm- PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm- PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 nm- PKZ856-Wales to Cape Thompson greater than 15 nm- PKZ857-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort from 15 to 85 nm- PKZ858-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin from 15 to 85 nm- PKZ859-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett from 15 to 75 nm- PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm- PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 nm- Ice covered. FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is high. As a weak low feature tracks north across the Chukchi Sea, current northerly to northwesterly winds will shift westerly on Tuesday and then southeasterly Wednesday and Thursday. Easterly winds become stronger on Friday and Saturday. Polynyas along western-facing coastlines, including in the Kotzebue Sound, will grow during the periods of easterly winds. -BERING SEA- PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 nm- PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 nm- PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 nm- PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 nm- PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 nm- PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 nm- PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 nm- PKZ816-South side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm- PKZ817-North side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm- PKZ850-Etolin Strait to Kwemeluk Pass from 15 to 90 nm- PKZ851-Southwest of Saint Lawrence Island from 15 to 100 nm- PKZ852-Norton Sound greater than 15 nm- PKZ853-Kwemeluk Pass to Kwikpak Pass from 15 to 90 nm- PKZ854-Sledge Island to Wales greater than 15 nm- Ice covered. PKZ760-Bristol Bay greater than 15 NM- PKZ761-Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 nm- PKZ762-Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Peirce out to 15 nm- PKZ764-Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 nm- PKZ765-North and West of Nunivak Island- PKZ767-Saint Matthew Island Waters- In the Bering Sea, the ice edge extends from near Platinum to 59 39’N 167 26’W to 61 1’N 172 19’W to 61 52’N 174 41’W and continues into Russian waters. The ice edge is open water. There is also some new sea ice in Bristol Bay between Cape Constantine and Naknek. From land-based points in Alaska, the ice edge extends from near Platinum to 35 nm south of Cape Mohican to 165 nm south of Gambell to 140 nm southwest of Gambell and continues into Russian waters. The ice edge is open water. There is also some new sea ice in Bristol Bay between Cape Constantine and Naknek. FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is moderate. Across the existing ice pack, current westerly winds will become southerly to southeasterly on Wednesday and then easterly from Thursday through Saturday. Expect polynyas to form/continue growing along western-facing coastlines. Sea ice within Bristol Bay will continue to melt. The main ice edge is expected to retreat gradually to the north throughout Saturday. -COOK INLET- PKZ740-Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island- SYNOPSIS...A series of lows transit the Gulf of Alaska and the Cook Inlet region throughout the forecast period. The main ice edge extends from near the West Foreland to near the East Foreland. The ice edge is open water. FORECAST FOR COOK INLET (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is high. Variable winds will become mostly northeasterly from Wednesday through Saturday. Temperatures will drop into the 20s and teens during this time period, which will help to promote ice growth within the inlet. Expect the main ice edge to advance southward from approximately Wednesday through Saturday. && Fenrich