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FZAK80 PAFC 160020

ICEAFC



Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters 

National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program 

320 PM AKST Wednesday 15 January 2025



FORECAST VALID...Monday 20 January 2025 



ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...High to moderate.



SYNOPSIS...High pressure over the Chukchi Sea and Beaufort Sea will 

give way to low pressure Friday through Monday as a large North 

Pacific low tracks north across the Bering Sea. 



-BEAUFORT SEA-



PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ859-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett from 15 to 75 nm-

PKZ860-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island from 15 to 80 nm-

PKZ861-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point from 15 to 75 nm-



Ice covered.



FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. Easterly winds will generally persist through 

Friday before becoming southeasterly on Saturday, southerly on 

Sunday, and then easterly again on Monday. Winds will be especially 

light from Sunday into Monday. The strongest (easterly) winds are 

expected Friday and Saturday. Ice pack movement overall should be 

minimal. Thickening ice conditions are expected through Monday.



-CHUKCHI SEA-



PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm-

PKZ809- Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm-

PKZ811-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort out to 15 nm-

PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 nm-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 nm-

PKZ856-Wales to Cape Thompson greater than 15 nm-

PKZ857-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort from 15 to 85 nm-

PKZ858-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin from 15 to 85 nm-

PKZ859-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett from 15 to 75 nm-

PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm-

PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 nm-



Ice covered. 



FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. A weak low feature currently over the Chukchi 

Sea tracks northwest into Russian waters through Monday. Generally 

easterly winds will reside throughout the forecast period, and they 

will be particularly strong across the Kotzebue Sound. On Sunday, 

winds shift more southeasterly. Expect the ice pack to drift to the 

west/northwest and for a polynyas to form along western-facing 

coastlines, especially within Kotzebue Sound.



-BERING SEA-



PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 nm-

PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 nm-

PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 nm-

PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 nm-

PKZ816-South side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ817-North side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ850-Etolin Strait to Kwemeluk Pass from 15 to 90 nm-

PKZ851-Southwest of Saint Lawrence Island from 15 to 100 nm-

PKZ852-Norton Sound greater than 15 nm-

PKZ853-Kwemeluk Pass to Kwikpak Pass from 15 to 90 nm-

PKZ854-Sledge Island to Wales greater than 15 nm-



Ice covered.



PKZ760-Bristol Bay greater than 15 NM-

PKZ761-Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 nm-

PKZ762-Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Peirce out to 15 nm-

PKZ764-Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 nm-

PKZ765-North and West of Nunivak Island-

PKZ767-Saint Matthew Island Waters-



In the Bering Sea, the main ice edge extends from near Cape Newenham 

to 59 27’N 167 39’W to 61 2’N 172 18’W to 61 39’N 176 15’W and 

continues into Russian waters. The ice edge is open water. There is 

also some new sea ice in Bristol Bay between Cape Constantine and 

Naknek.



From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from 

near Cape Newenham to 45 nm south of Cape Mohican to 145 nm south of 

Gambell to 175 nm southwest of Gambell and continues into Russian 

waters. There is also some new sea ice in Bristol Bay between Cape 

Constantine and Naknek.



FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence 

is moderate. Across the existing ice pack, current southerly to 

southeasterly winds will become more easterly from Thursday through 

Saturday as a large low tracks north across the Bering Sea. On 

Sunday and Monday, the low weakens and winds become lighter and more 

variable. Overall, expect polynyas to form along western-facing 

coastlines with the strong easterly winds. Also, sea ice within 

Bristol Bay will continue to melt, and the main edge will continue 

to gradually retreat to the north through Monday.



-COOK INLET-



PKZ740-Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-



SYNOPSIS...A series of fronts will transit the Gulf of Alaska and 

the Cook Inlet region throughout the forecast period. Thus, low 

pressure will persist over the Gulf of Alaska while high pressure 

lingers over the mainland. 



In Cook Inlet, the main ice edge extends from near the West Foreland 

near Point Possession. The ice edge is open water. 



FORECAST FOR COOK INLET (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is 

high. Northeasterly winds will persist through Monday. Temperatures 

will linger around the mid 20s to upper teens, which will help to 

promote ice growth within the inlet. Expect the main ice edge to 

advance southward through most of the forecast period.On Sunday, 

temperatures look to warm slightly to near or just above freezing 

for southern portions of Cook Inlet, which could slow ice growth 

near the ice edge. 



&& 

Fenrich