####018006333#### FZAK80 PAFC 222319 ICEAFC Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program 219 PM AKST Wednesday 22 January 2025 FORECAST VALID...Monday 27 January 2025 ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...Moderate to high. SYNOPSIS...A large complex low will move north through the Bering Sea, Chukchi Sea, and Beaufort Sea through the weekend. High pressure from eastern Russia begins to build east across the Bering Sea and Chukchi Sea on Sunday, and then across the Beaufort Sea on Monday. -BEAUFORT SEA- PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore- PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore- PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm- PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm- PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm- PKZ859-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett from 15 to 75 nm- PKZ860-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island from 15 to 80 nm- PKZ861-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point from 15 to 75 nm- Ice covered. FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is high. Northeasterly winds will persist into Thursday. As the complex low moves into the Chukchi Sea, easterly winds will increase later Thursday into Friday before becoming strong southwesterly winds Friday afternoon through Saturday. Winds will weaken Sunday and Monday as the low exits to the east. The ice pack will move in the direction of the winds. Polynyas will form and expand at the edge of shorefast ice during the periods of easterly winds (later Thursday into Friday) and then southwesterly winds (Friday afternoon through Saturday). -CHUKCHI SEA- PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore- PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore- PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm- PKZ809- Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm- PKZ811-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort out to 15 nm- PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 nm- PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm- PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 nm- PKZ856-Wales to Cape Thompson greater than 15 nm- PKZ857-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort from 15 to 85 nm- PKZ858-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin from 15 to 85 nm- PKZ859-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett from 15 to 75 nm- PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm- PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 nm- Ice covered. FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is moderate. As the complex low moves into the Chukchi Sea, northerly winds become easterly on Thursday and then southerly to southwesterly on Friday through part of Saturday. As the low continues tracking to the northeast into the Beaufort Sea, winds across the Chukchi Sea become westerly to northwesterly from later Saturday through Monday. Expect sea ice to drift in the direction of the winds on each given day. Polynyas along west and north-facing coastlines will develop and expand during periods of easterly to southerly winds (Thursday through start of Saturday), and then the polynyas should start to close up towards the end of the weekend and into the work week as westerly-northwesterly winds push sea ice back (later Saturday through Monday). -BERING SEA- PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 nm- PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 nm- PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 nm- PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 nm- PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 nm- PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 nm- PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 nm- PKZ816-South side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm- PKZ817-North side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm- PKZ850-Etolin Strait to Kwemeluk Pass from 15 to 90 nm- PKZ851-Southwest of Saint Lawrence Island from 15 to 100 nm- PKZ852-Norton Sound greater than 15 nm- PKZ853-Kwemeluk Pass to Kwikpak Pass from 15 to 90 nm- PKZ854-Sledge Island to Wales greater than 15 nm- Ice covered. PKZ760-Bristol Bay greater than 15 NM- PKZ761-Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 nm- PKZ762-Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Peirce out to 15 nm- PKZ764-Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 nm- PKZ765-North and West of Nunivak Island- PKZ767-Saint Matthew Island Waters- In the Bering Sea, the main ice edge extends from near Quinhagak to 59 36’N 167 35’W to 60 52’N 172 17’W to 61 57’N 176 4’W and continues into Russian waters. The ice edge is open water. There is also some new sea ice in Bristol Bay between Cape Constantine and Naknek. From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from near Quinhagak to 35 nm south of Cape Mohican to 170 nm south of Gambell to 170 nm southwest of Gambell and continues into Russian waters. The ice edge is open water. There is also some new sea ice in Bristol Bay between Cape Constantine and Naknek. FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is moderate. Generally southerly to southwesterly winds through Friday as a complex low tracks to the north across the Bering Sea. Thus, south-facing coastlines will likely see water flood the nearshore ice pack. From Saturday through Monday, winds will generally be northerly to northwesterly. Given the variable wind directions throughout the forecast period, the main ice edge should more or less remain close to where it currently is. -COOK INLET- PKZ740-Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island- SYNOPSIS...High pressure will build north over the Gulf of Alaska through Friday and then move east from Saturday through Monday as a low moves north toward the Bristol Bay area. In Cook Inlet, the main ice edge extends from near the West Foreland to 10 nm northwest of Nikiski to near Nikiski. The ice edge is open water. FORECAST FOR COOK INLET (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is high. Southerly winds and temperatures in the upper 20s to mid 30s are expected through Monday for most of Cook Inlet. Turnagain Arm will see easterly winds. Overall, sea ice growth will be minimal through the forecast period. && Fenrich