####018005279#### FZAK30 PAFC 231655 ICOAFC Sea Ice Outlook for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska 755 AM AKST Thursday 23 January 2024 ...JANUARY 2025 MONTHLY SEA ICE OUTLOOK... Sea ice has grown quite a bit over the past month and has almost reached St. Matthew Island, however it remains below average for mid- January. For the most part, lows have tracked near or south of the Aleutian Islands, but there have been a few that have tracked north into the Bering Sea. Bristol Bay north to the Kuskokwim Delta have struggled the most to establish an ice pack in the Bering Sea, and Cook Inlet has even less sea ice than the same time in 2015 and 2016 which were the most similar years in the Cook Inlet region. As we look forward through the remainder of winter and into the very beginning of break-up season, weak La Nina conditions have established and are expected to continue through April. It is common to see better sea ice growth conditions in the latter part of winter during La Nina, though sea ice extent will still likely be below average. The best chances for sustained growth will continue to be from the Yukon Delta northward, with more variable conditions for the Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay. Detailed information can be found in each pertinent section below. …FREEZE-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE BERING SEA… For Bristol Bay, re-establishment of sea ice is going to continue to be dependent on the storm track. If the general storm track is into Bristol Bay or near the Kuskokwim Delta as expected, sea ice will struggle to grow and will continue to fluctuate throughout the rest of the growth season. The main ice edge is expected to reach Saint Matthew Island by mid- January. The ice edge makes it to Saint Paul Island around 50 percent of the years on record, and is usually late in the ice season. There is approximately a 20 percent chance that sea ice will make it to Saint Paul Island and it is not expected to reach Saint George Island this season. If sea ice does make it as far south as Saint Paul Island, it would likely be very briefly toward the end of the season in late March or early April. For the Alaska Peninsula, sea ice growth is expected to generally remain within and near protected bays. Extensive sea ice growth along the Alaska Peninsula is not expected this season. …FREEZE-UP OUTLOOK FOR COOK INLET… The period from December 1, 2024 through January 15, 2025 was the second warmest on record at Anchorage since 2000, with the 2000-2001 winter having very similar average temperatures. While any extended cold snap in the Cook Inlet region can support much more extensive sea ice growth through February or so, sea ice conditions within Cook Inlet are expected to be much less than average. North of the Forelands, seven tenths concentration may be reached by the first or second week of February, but sea ice may also remain below this threshold this season. Sea ice may form along the coast from Kenai to Nikiski this season if there is a long enough cold snap before the end of February. The ice edge will likely not make it to Kalgin Island this season. If it does, it would most likely be briefly during the second half of February. From 60N to the Forelands, sea ice is not likely to reach three tenths concentration this season. If it does, it would most likely be briefly during the second half of February. Sea ice is not expected to make it to Ninilchik this season. …BREAK-UP OUTLOOK FOR COOK INLET… With a low sea ice extent expected for the remainder of the freeze- up season, what sea ice does form will be quicker to melt than average. In other years with low sea ice in Cook Inlet, sea ice north of Point Possession tends to linger into the first half of April. Break-up dates listed here are largely weighted toward the winters of 2000-2001 and 2015-2016. South of the Forelands is expected to be ice free or open by mid- March, but may be as early as late February if temperatures remain quite mild. For the Forelands to Fire Island, three tenths conditions and ice free conditions are expected by the second or third week of March. Turnagain Arm is expected to be ice free during the last week of March or first week of April. Cook Inlet is expected to be sea ice free for the season by the third week of April. …BREAK-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE BERING SEA… The sea ice extent within Bristol Bay is expected to continue to be variable throughout the remainder of the winter season. Sea ice is expected to remain below three tenths concentration by the first week of April and may be sea ice free for the season by mid-April. Within Kuskokwim Bay, sea ice is expected to no longer be shorefast by mid-April. Sea ice concentration may reach 3 tenths and become sea ice free by the end of April. Etolin Strait sea ice may reach three tenths during the second half of April. $$ Schreck