####018005804#### FZAK80 PAFC 242302 ICEAFC Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program 202 PM AKST Friday 24 January 2025 FORECAST VALID...Wednesday 29 January 2025 ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...Moderate to high. SYNOPSIS...A low will move northeast across the Beaufort Sea through Saturday, then high pressure will build over the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas Sunday through Wednesday. Farther south, a low will move north from the southern Bering Sea across the Alaska mainland through Wednesday. As that low moves off to the northeast, high pressure will build over the northern Bering Sea Tuesday and Wednesday. -BEAUFORT SEA- PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore- PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore- PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm- PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm- PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm- PKZ859-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett from 15 to 75 nm- PKZ860-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island from 15 to 80 nm- PKZ861-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point from 15 to 75 nm- Ice covered. FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is high. Southwesterly winds will become northwesterly Sunday, then shift to northeasterly Monday through Wednesday. The ice pack will generally move in the direction of the winds. Polynyas will form and expand at the edge of shorefast ice through Saturday, but will close off again Sunday through Wednesday as winds become more northerly. -CHUKCHI SEA- PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore- PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore- PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm- PKZ809- Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm- PKZ811-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort out to 15 nm- PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 nm- PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm- PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 nm- PKZ856-Wales to Cape Thompson greater than 15 nm- PKZ857-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort from 15 to 85 nm- PKZ858-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin from 15 to 85 nm- PKZ859-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett from 15 to 75 nm- PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm- PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 nm- Ice covered. FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is moderate. Southwesterly winds will shift to northerly Sunday and persist through Wednesday. Expect sea ice to drift northeast through Saturday, then drift back south Sunday through Wednesday. Any polynyas that formed with the southerly winds will close off again as the main ice pack drifts back to the south. -BERING SEA- PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 nm- PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 nm- PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 nm- PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 nm- PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 nm- PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 nm- PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 nm- PKZ816-South side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm- PKZ817-North side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm- PKZ850-Etolin Strait to Kwemeluk Pass from 15 to 90 nm- PKZ851-Southwest of Saint Lawrence Island from 15 to 100 nm- PKZ852-Norton Sound greater than 15 nm- PKZ853-Kwemeluk Pass to Kwikpak Pass from 15 to 90 nm- PKZ854-Sledge Island to Wales greater than 15 nm- Ice covered. PKZ760-Bristol Bay greater than 15 NM- PKZ761-Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 nm- PKZ762-Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Peirce out to 15 nm- PKZ764-Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 nm- PKZ765-North and West of Nunivak Island- PKZ767-Saint Matthew Island Waters- In the Bering Sea, the main ice edge extends from near Quinhagak to 60N 168 51’W to 62 21’N 176 35’W and continues into Russian waters. The ice edge is open water. There is also some new sea ice in Nushagak Bay. From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from near Quinhagak to 45 nm southwest of Cape Mohican to 150 nm southwest of Gambell and continues into Russian waters. The ice edge is open water. There is also some new sea ice in Nushagak Bay. FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is moderate. Winds will become northerly to northwesterly Saturday through Wednesday across the existing ice pack. Sea ice will drift south and southeast through the forecast period, with the ice edge expected to reach Saint Matthew Island by Wednesday. -COOK INLET- PKZ740-Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island- SYNOPSIS...Low pressure will move northeast from the Bristol Bay region across the Alaska mainland through Tuesday. Another weaker low will move northeast toward the eastern Gulf of Alaska Tuesday and Wednesday. In Cook Inlet, the main ice edge extends from near Tyonek to near Fire Island to near Point Possession. The ice edge is open water. FORECAST FOR COOK INLET (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is high. Air temperatures will remain in the mid 30s to low 40s through Monday, then will become more seasonable Tuesday through Wednesday. There isn’t much sea ice left to melt during this period of warm air temperatures, but new sea ice growth is likely as temperatures cool Tuesday and Wednesday into the single digits and teens. This new sea ice growth will likely be much more widespread than we usually see at the beginning of the season as water temperatures are already primed for sea ice growth through much of upper Cook Inlet. && Schreck