####018003702#### WWUS86 KPQR 162005 SABOR Summary Avalanche Forecast for Mt Hood area Northwest Weather and Avalanche Center Seattle Washington 1205 PM PST Thu Feb 16 2012 This forecast applies to back country avalanche terrain below 7000 feet and does not apply to developed ski areas or highways. Avalanche Forecast Mt Hood area- Thursday and Thursday night: Moderate avalanche danger above 5000 feet and low below, slightly increasing. Decreasing danger Thursday night. Friday and Friday night: Moderate avalanche danger above 5000 feet and low below early Friday, increasing Friday afternoon and night becoming considerable above 5000 feet and moderate below. Outlook Saturday: Increasing considerable avalanche danger above 5000 feet and moderate below. Snowpack Synopsis Generally shallow amounts of recent snow overlie strong near surface melt-freeze crust layers. In the Mt Hood area about 6 to 8 inches of snow accumulated as of Wednesday morning along with moderate west winds this created shallow unstable wind slab layers at higher elevations near 7000 feet. Variable surface conditions can be expected as periods of strong winds likely have scoured much or all the recent snow to expose a strong and hard crust layer. More sheltered terrain away from wind or sun exposure is likely holding shallow settled powder snow over a firm underlying crust. South slopes likely have a thin breakable sun crust atop the recent snow from warming and sunshine Wednesday afternoon. Thursday A weak front should move across the area Thursday depositing generally light amounts of new snow but with a brief period of strong winds. This should allow for an increased danger on some steeper exposed lee slopes receiveing wind transported snow. These should be mainly north, northeast to east facing slopes above about 6000 feet where winds will be strongest. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully and identify potential terrain features of concern. Friday Cloudy early with gradually increasing winds and light rain or snow developing near midday Friday. This should begin to increase the danger from increasing wind transport to lee slopes. Increasing moderate rain or snow , increasing strong winds and cooling temperatures late Friday and Friday night should lead to a further and more significant increase in the danger. Building unstable wind slab conditions are expected on steeper lee terrain, especially higher elevations where human triggered avalanches should be likely. Careful snowpack evaluation will become essential in exposed higher terrain. Saturday Outlook Strong winds and moderate snow showers at low snow levels Saturday should cause a further increase in the avalanche danger. Increasingly deep and unstable wind slab layers are expected to develop on steeper exposed lee slopes, especially higher elevations where strongest winds are expected. The greatest danger increase is expected to northeast to southeast facing slopes, especially on steeper slopes below ridges where cautious routefinding and conservative decision-making will be essential. NWAC weather data and forecasts are also available by calling 206-526-6677 for Washington, 503-808-2400 for the Mt Hood area, or by visiting our Web site at www.nwac.us. Kramer/Northwest Weather and Avalanche Center Seattle Washington References 1. http://www.nwac.us/####018004877#### WWUS86 KSEW 162005 SABWA Summary Avalanche Forecast for Olympics and Washington Cascades Northwest Weather and Avalanche Center Seattle Washington 1205 PM PST Thu Feb 16 2012 This forecast applies to back country avalanche terrain below 7000 feet and does not apply to developed ski areas or highways. Avalanche Forecast Olympics- Washington Cascades near and west of crest, north of Stevens Pass- Thursday and Thursday night: Increasing considerable avalanche danger above 5000 feet and moderate below. Decreasing danger Thursday night. Friday and Friday night: Increasing considerable avalanche danger above 5000 feet and moderate below. Outlook Saturday: Considerable avalanche danger above 5000 feet and moderate below. Washington Cascades near and west of crest, Stevens Pass southward- Thursday and Thursday night: Moderate avalanche danger above 5000 feet and low below, slightly increasing. Decreasing danger Thursday night. Friday and Friday night: Moderate avalanche danger above 5000 feet and low below early Friday, increasing Friday afternoon and night becoming considerable above 5000 feet and moderate below. Outlook Saturday: Increasing considerable avalanche danger above 5000 feet and moderate below. East Slopes Washington Cascades Thursday and Thursday night: Moderate avalanche danger above 5000 feet and low below, slightly increasing. Decreasing danger Thursday night. Friday and Friday night: Moderate avalanche danger above 5000 feet and low below early Friday, increasing Friday afternoon and night becoming considerable above 6000 feet and moderate below. Outlook Saturday: Increasing considerable avalanche danger above 6000 feet and moderate below. Snowpack Synopsis Generally shallow amounts of recent snow overlie strong near surface melt-freeze or sun crust layers. Recent intermittent light snow events each depositing a trace to 2 or 3 inches over the past week. This has amounted to about 4 to 8 inches of total accumulations as of Wednesday morning along with moderate winds at times. Reports as of Thursday morning at Hurricane Ridge and the Mt Baker ski area has confirmed that new unstable wind slabs are building on lee slopes, mainly north to northeast facing near 5000 feet. Elsewhere variable surface conditions can be expected as periods of strong winds likely have scoured much or all the recent snow to expose a strong and hard crust layer. More sheltered terrain away from wind or sun exposure is likely holding shallow settled powder snow over a firm underlying crust. Thursday A weak front should move across the area Thursday depositing generally light amounts of new snow but with a brief period of strong winds. This should allow for an increased danger on steeper exposed lee slopes receiveing wind transported snow. These should be mainly north, northeast to east facing slopes above about 5000 feet where winds will be strongest. Cautious routefinding and conservative decision-making will be essential Thursday at higher elevations. Friday Cloudy early with gradually increasing winds and light rain or snow developing near midday Friday. This should begin to increase the danger from increasing wind transport to lee slopes. Increasing moderate rain or snow , increasing strong winds and cooling temperatures late Friday and Friday night should lead to a further and more significant increase in the danger. Building unstable wind slab conditions are expected on steeper lee terrain, especially higher elevations where human triggered avalanches should be likely. Careful snowpack evaluation will become essential in exposed higher terrain. Saturday Outlook Strong winds and moderate snow showers at low snow levels Saturday should cause a further increase in the avalanche danger. Increasingly deep and unstable wind slab layers are expected to develop on steeper exposed lee slopes, especially higher elevations where strongest winds are expected. The greatest danger increase is expected to northeast to southeast facing slopes, especially on steeper slopes below ridges where cautious routefinding and conservative decision-making will be essential. NWAC weather data and forecasts are also available by calling 206-526-6677 for Washington, 503-808-2400 for the Mt Hood area, or by visiting our Web site at www.nwac.us. Kramer/Northwest Weather and Avalanche Center Seattle Washington References 1. http://www.nwac.us/