####018005765#### WWIN40 DEMS 070933 IWB (MORNING) DATED 07-05-2025 METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS: THE WESTERN DISTURBANCE AS A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER WEST RAJASTHAN AND NEIGHBOURHOOD NOW LIES OVER WEST MADHYA PRADESH & NEIGHBOURHOOD BETWEEN 1.5 & 7.6 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL. THE UPPER AIR CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER NORTHWEST MADHYA PRADESH & NEIGHBOURHOOD PERSISTS AND NOW SEEN AT A 0.9 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL. THE EAST-WEST TROUGH NOW RUNS FROM SOUTHWEST RAJASTHAN TO NORTH JHARKHAND ACROSS CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER NORTHWEST MADHYA PRADESH, EAST MADHYA PRADESH, NORTH CHHATTISGARH AT 0.9 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL. A TROUGH RUNS FROM NORTHEAST ARABIAN SEA TO CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER WEST MADHYA PRADESH ACROSS GUJARAT BETWEEN 3.1 & 5.8 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL. THE UPPER AIR CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER SOUTH TELANGANA AND NEIGHBOURHOOD AT 0.9 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL HAS BECOME LESS MARKED. HOWEVER, THE NORTH- SOUTH TROUGH FROM SOUTH TELANGANA TO GULF OF MANNAR ACROSS RAYALASEEMA AND TAMIL NADU AT 0.9 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL PERSISTS. THE UPPER AIR CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER NORTHEAST ASSAM & NEIGHBOURHOOD PERSISTS AND NOW SEEN AT 0.9 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL. A TROUGH IN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC WESTERLIES WITH ITS AXIS AT 3.1 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL RUNS ROUGHLY ALONG LONG. 93°E TO THE NORTH OF LAT. 23°N. AN UPPER AIR CYCLONIC CIRCULATION LIES OVER SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL AND ADJOINING SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA BETWEEN 3.1 & 5.8 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVELS. SOUTHWEST MONSOON IS VERY LIKELY TO ADVANCE INTO SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA, SOME PARTS OF SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL AND NICOBAR ISLANDS AROUND 13TH MAY, 2025. A FRESH WESTERN DISTURBANCE IS LIKELY TO AFFECT WESTERN HIMALAYAN REGION FROM 09TH MAY, 2025. THE UPPER AIR CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHWEST RAJASTHAN & NEIGHBOURHOOD EXTENDING UPTO 1.5 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL HAS BECOME LESS MARKED. RAINFALL FORECAST: AT MOST PLACES OVER GUJARAT STATE; AT MANY PLACES OVER ANDAMAN & NICOBAR ISLANDS, ARUNACHAL PRADESH, ASSAM & MEGHALAYA, SUB-HIMALAYAN WEST BENGAL & SIKKIM; AT A FEW PLACES OVER NAGALAND, MANIPUR, MIZORAM & TRIPURA, UTTARAKHAND, EAST RAJASTHAN, WEST MADHYA PRADESH, COASTAL ANDHRA PRADESH & YANAM, TAMIL NADU, PUDUCHERRY & KARAIKAL, KERALA & MAHE, LAKSHADWEEP; AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER GANGETIC WEST BENGAL, ODISHA, BIHAR, UTTAR PRADESH, HARYANA-CHANDIGARH-DELHI, PUNJAB, JAMMU-KASHMIR-LADAKH-GILGIT-BALTISTAN-MUZAFFARABAD, WEST RAJASTHAN, EAST MADHYA PRADESH, KONKAN & GOA, MADHYA MAHARASHTRA, MARATHWADA, VIDARBHA, CHHATTISGARH, TELANGANA, RAYALASEEMA, KARNATAKA. DRY WEATHER OVER JHARKHAND. WEATHER WARNINGS: 07TH MAY (DAY 1) THUNDERSQUALL WITH WIND SPEED REACHING(50-60KMPH) VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER EAST RAJASTHAN, GUJARAT, KONKAN & GOA, MADHYA MAHARASHTRA, MADHYA PRADESH AND MARATHWADA. THUNDERSTORM ACCOMPANIED WITH LIGHTNING & GUSTY WINDS(40-50KMPH) VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER ANDHRA PRADESH, ASSAM & MEGHALAYA, HIMACHAL PRADESH, JAMMU AND KASHMIR AND LADAKH, TELANGANA, UTTARAKHAND, VIDARBHA AND WEST RAJASTHAN. THUNDERSTORM ACCOMPANIED WITH LIGHTNING & GUSTY WINDS(30-40KMPH) VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER CHHATTISGARH, HARYANA, CHANDIGARH & DELHI, KERALA AND MAHE, ODISHA, PUNJAB, SUB HIMALAYAN WEST BENGAL & SIKKIM, TAMILNADU & PUDUCHERRY AND UTTAR PRADESH. HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY RAINFALL VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER GUJARAT REGION. HOT AND HUMID VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER KERALA AND MAHE AND TAMILNADU & PUDUCHERRY. EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER SAURASHTRA & KUTCH. DUST STORM VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER WEST RAJASTHAN. THUNDERSTORM ACCOMPANIED WITH HAILSTORM VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER MADHYA MAHARASHTRA, MADHYA PRADESH, MARATHWADA, SUB HIMALAYAN WEST BENGAL & SIKKIM AND UTTARAKHAND. THUNDERSTORM ACCOMPANIED WITH LIGHTNING VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER ANDHRA PRADESH, ARUNACHAL PRADESH, CHHATTISGARH, EAST MADHYA PRADESH, HIMACHAL PRADESH, KERALA AND MAHE, KONKAN & GOA, LAKSHADWEEP, MAHARASHTRA, NAGALAND, MANIPUR, MIZORAM AND TRIPURA, RAJASTHAN, SAURASHTRA & KUTCH, TAMILNADU & PUDUCHERRY AND TELANGANA. HEAVY RAINFALL VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER ARUNACHAL PRADESH, ASSAM & MEGHALAYA, EAST RAJASTHAN, KONKAN & GOA, UTTARAKHAND AND WEST MADHYA PRADESH. 08TH MAY (DAY 2) THUNDERSQUALL WITH WIND SPEED REACHING(50-60KMPH) VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER GUJARAT AND WEST MADHYA PRADESH. THUNDERSTORM ACCOMPANIED WITH LIGHTNING & GUSTY WINDS(40-50KMPH) VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER ANDHRA PRADESH, EAST MADHYA PRADESH, HIMACHAL PRADESH, JAMMU AND KASHMIR AND LADAKH, MADHYA MAHARASHTRA, MARATHWADA, RAJASTHAN AND UTTARAKHAND. THUNDERSTORM ACCOMPANIED WITH LIGHTNING & GUSTY WINDS(30-40KMPH) VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER ASSAM & MEGHALAYA, CHHATTISGARH, EAST UTTAR PRADESH, HARYANA, CHANDIGARH & DELHI, KERALA AND MAHE, KONKAN & GOA, NAGALAND, MANIPUR, MIZORAM AND TRIPURA, TELANGANA AND VIDARBHA. HEAVY RAINFALL VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER GUJARAT. HOT AND HUMID VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER KERALA AND MAHE, ODISHA AND TAMILNADU & PUDUCHERRY. HEAT WAVE VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER GANGETIC WEST BENGAL. DUST STORM VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER WEST RAJASTHAN. THUNDERSTORM ACCOMPANIED WITH HAILSTORM VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER UTTARAKHAND AND WEST MADHYA PRADESH. THUNDERSTORM ACCOMPANIED WITH LIGHTNING VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER ANDHRA PRADESH, ARUNACHAL PRADESH, CHHATTISGARH, EAST MADHYA PRADESH, HIMACHAL PRADESH, KERALA AND MAHE, KONKAN & GOA, MAHARASHTRA, RAJASTHAN, SAURASHTRA & KUTCH, SUB HIMALAYAN WEST BENGAL & SIKKIM, TELANGANA AND WEST UTTAR PRADESH.