####018005781#### WWIN40 DEMS 071200 IWB (EVENING) DATED 07-05-2025 METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS: THE WESTERN DISTURBANCE OVER WEST MADHYA PRADESH & NEIGHBOURHOOD BETWEEN 1.5 & 7.6 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL PERSISTS. THE UPPER AIR CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER NORTHWEST MADHYA PRADESH & NEIGHBOURHOOD AT A 0.9 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL PERSISTS. THE EAST-WEST TROUGH FROM SOUTHWEST RAJASTHAN TO NORTH JHARKHAND ACROSS CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER NORTHWEST MADHYA PRADESH, EAST MADHYA PRADESH, NORTH CHHATTISGARH AT 0.9 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL PERSISTS. A TROUGH FROM NORTHEAST ARABIAN SEA TO CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER WEST MADHYA PRADESH ACROSS GUJARAT BETWEEN 3.1 & 5.8 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL PERSISTS. THE NORTH- SOUTH TROUGH FROM SOUTH TELANGANA TO GULF OF MANNAR ACROSS RAYALASEEMA AND TAMIL NADU AT 0.9 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL PERSISTS. THE UPPER AIR CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER NORTHEAST ASSAM & NEIGHBOURHOOD PERSISTS AT 0.9 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL PERSISTS. A TROUGH IN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC WESTERLIES WITH ITS AXIS AT 3.1 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL ROUGHLY ALONG LONG. 93OE TO THE NORTH OF LAT. 23ON PERSISTS. AN UPPER AIR CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL AND ADJOINING SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA BETWEEN 3.1 & 5.8 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVELS PERSISTS. SOUTHWEST MONSOON IS VERY LIKELY TO ADVANCE INTO SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA, SOME PARTS OF SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL AND NICOBAR ISLANDS AROUND 13 TH MAY, 2025. THE WESTERN DISTURBANCE SEEN AS TROUGH IN MIDDLE TROPOSPHERIC WESTERLIES WITH ITS AXIS AT 5.8 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL RUN ROUGHLY ALONG LONG. 50OE TO THE NORTH OF LAT. 30ON. RAINFALL FORECAST: AT MOST PLACES OVER GUJARAT STATE; AT MANY PLACES OVER ANDAMAN & NICOBAR ISLANDS, ARUNACHAL PRADESH, ASSAM & MEGHALAYA, SUB-HIMALAYAN WEST BENGAL & SIKKIM; AT A FEW PLACES OVER NAGALAND, MANIPUR, MIZORAM & TRIPURA, UTTARAKHAND, EAST RAJASTHAN, WEST MADHYA PRADESH, COASTAL ANDHRA PRADESH & YANAM, TAMIL NADU, PUDUCHERRY & KARAIKAL, KERALA & MAHE, LAKSHADWEEP; AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER GANGETIC WEST BENGAL, ODISHA, BIHAR, UTTAR PRADESH, HARYANA- CHANDIGARH-DELHI, PUNJAB, JAMMU-KASHMIR-LADAKH-GILGIT-BALTISTAN-MU ZAFFARABAD, WEST RAJASTHAN, EAST MADHYA PRADESH, KONKAN & GOA, MADHYA MAHARASHTRA, MARATHWADA, VIDARBHA, CHHATTISGARH, TELANGANA, RAYALASEEMA, KARNATAKA. DRY WEATHER OVER JHARKHAND. WEATHER WARNINGS: 07 TH MAY (DAY 1) THUNDERSQUALL WITH WIND SPEED REACHING(50-60KMPH) VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER EAST RAJASTHAN, GUJARAT, KONKAN & GOA, MADHYA MAHARASHTRA, MADHYA PRADESH AND MARATHWADA. THUNDERSTORM ACCOMPANIED WITH LIGHTNING & GUSTY WINDS(40-50KMPH) VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER ANDHRA PRADESH, ASSAM & MEGHALAYA, HIMACHAL PRADESH, JAMMU AND KASHMIR AND LADAKH, TELANGANA, UTTARAKHAND, VIDARBHA AND WEST RAJASTHAN. THUNDERSTORM ACCOMPANIED WITH LIGHTNING & GUSTY WINDS(30-40KMPH) VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER CHHATTISGARH, HARYANA, CHANDIGARH & DELHI, KERALA AND MAHE, ODISHA, PUNJAB, SUB HIMALAYAN WEST BENGAL & SIKKIM, TAMILNADU & PUDUCHERRY AND UTTAR PRADESH. HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY RAINFALL VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER GUJARAT REGION. HOT AND HUMID VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER KERALA AND MAHE AND TAMILNADU & PUDUCHERRY. EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER SAURASHTRA & KUTCH. DUST STORM VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER WEST RAJASTHAN. THUNDERSTORM ACCOMPANIED WITH HAILSTORM VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER MADHYA MAHARASHTRA, MADHYA PRADESH, MARATHWADA, SUB HIMALAYAN WEST BENGAL & SIKKIM AND UTTARAKHAND. THUNDERSTORM ACCOMPANIED WITH LIGHTNING VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER ANDHRA PRADESH, ARUNACHAL PRADESH, CHHATTISGARH, EAST MADHYA PRADESH, HIMACHAL PRADESH, KERALA AND MAHE, KONKAN & GOA, LAKSHADWEEP, MAHARASHTRA, NAGALAND, MANIPUR, MIZORAM AND TRIPURA, RAJASTHAN, SAURASHTRA & KUTCH, TAMILNADU & PUDUCHERRY AND TELANGANA. HEAVY RAINFALL VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER ARUNACHAL PRADESH, ASSAM & MEGHALAYA, EAST RAJASTHAN, KONKAN & GOA, UTTARAKHAND AND WEST MADHYA PRADESH. 08 TH MAY (DAY 2) THUNDERSQUALL WITH WIND SPEED REACHING(50-60KMPH) VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER GUJARAT AND WEST MADHYA PRADESH. THUNDERSTORM ACCOMPANIED WITH LIGHTNING & GUSTY WINDS(40-50KMPH) VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER ANDHRA PRADESH, EAST MADHYA PRADESH, HIMACHAL PRADESH, JAMMU AND KASHMIR AND LADAKH, MADHYA MAHARASHTRA, MARATHWADA, RAJASTHAN AND UTTARAKHAND. THUNDERSTORM ACCOMPANIED WITH LIGHTNING & GUSTY WINDS(30-40KMPH) VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER ASSAM & MEGHALAYA, CHHATTISGARH, EAST UTTAR PRADESH, HARYANA, CHANDIGARH & DELHI, KERALA AND MAHE, KONKAN & GOA, NAGALAND, MANIPUR, MIZORAM AND TRIPURA, TELANGANA AND VIDARBHA. HEAVY RAINFALL VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER GUJARAT. HOT AND HUMID VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER KERALA AND MAHE, ODISHA AND TAMILNADU & PUDUCHERRY. HEAT WAVE VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER GANGETIC WEST BENGAL. DUST STORM VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER WEST RAJASTHAN. THUNDERSTORM ACCOMPANIED WITH HAILSTORM VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER UTTARAKHAND AND WEST MADHYA PRADESH. THUNDERSTORM ACCOMPANIED WITH LIGHTNING VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER ANDHRA PRADESH, ARUNACHAL PRADESH, CHHATTISGARH, EAST MADHYA PRADESH, HIMACHAL PRADESH, KERALA AND MAHE, KONKAN & GOA, MAHARASHTRA, RAJASTHAN, SAURASHTRA & KUTCH, SUB HIMALAYAN WEST BENGAL & SIKKIM, TELANGANA AND WEST UTTAR PRADESH.=