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WWIN40 DEMS 110900

IWB (MORNING) DATED 11-05-2025



METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS:



 THE WESTERN DISTURBANCE AS A TROUGH IN MIDDLE TROPOSPHERIC

WESTERLIES WITH ITS AXIS

AT 5.8 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL NOW RUNS ROUGHLY ALONG LONG. 71OE TO

THE NORTH OF LAT.

28ON.



 THE OTHER WESTERN DISTURBANCE AS A TROUGH IN MIDDLE TROPOSPHERIC

WESTERLIES ALONG

LONG. 60OE TO THE NORTH OF LAT. 27ON HAS MOVED EASTWARDS AND MERGED

WITH ABOVE

WESTERN DISTURBANCE.



 A TROUGH RUNS FROM SAURASHTRA TO EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA ACROSS

NORTH EAST

ARABIAN SEA AT 3.1 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL.



 THE NORTH-SOUTH TROUGH FROM MARATHWADA TO GULF OF MANNAR ACROSS

INTERIOR

KARNATAKA AND TAMIL NADU AT 0.9 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL PERSISTS.



 THE UPPER AIR CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER NORTHEAST ASSAM &

NEIGHBOURHOOD NOW

EXTENDS UPTO 5.8 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL.



 A TROUGH RUNS FROM ABOVE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO JHARKHAND ACROSS

NORTH

BANGLADESH, GANGETIC WEST BENGAL AT 0.9 KM ABOVE MEAN SEAL LEVEL.



 SOUTHWEST MONSOON IS VERY LIKELY TO ADVANCE INTO SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA,

SOME PARTS OF

SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL AND NICOBAR ISLANDS AROUND 13TH MAY, 2025. IT

IS LIKELY TO

FURTHER ADVANCE OVER SOME PARTS OF SOUTH ARABIAN SEA, MALDIVES &

COMORIN AREA; SOME

MORE PARTS OF SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL, ENTIRE ANDAMAN & NICOBAR ISLANDS

AND ANDAMAN SEA;

AND SOME PARTS OF CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL DURING SUBSEQUENT 4-5 DAYS.



 THE UPPER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER SOUTH ANDHRA PRADESH AT 1.5

ABOVE MEAN SEA

LEVEL HAS BECOME LESS MARKED.



 THE UPPER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER NORTH BANGLADESH AT 0.9 KM ABOVE

MEAN SEA LEVEL

HAS BECOME LESS MARKED.



 THE UPPER AIR CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER SAURASHTRA AND ITS

NEIGHBOURHOOD AT 3.1 KM

ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL HAS BECOME LESS MARKED.



 THE UPPER AIR CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL AND

ADJOINING SOUTH

ANDAMAN SEA BETWEEN 3.1 & 4.5 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL HAS BECOME LESS

MARKED.



RAINFALL FORECAST:





 AT MOST PLACES OVER ANDAMAN & NICOBAR ISLANDS, ARUNACHAL PRADESH,

ASSAM &

MEGHALAYA;



 AT MANY PLACES OVER NAGALAND, MANIPUR, MIZORAM & TRIPURA, COASTAL

KARNATAKA, LAKSHADWEEP;



 AT A FEW PLACES OVER UTTARAKHAND, HARYANA-CHANDIGARH-DELHI, PUNJAB,



HIMACHAL PRADESH, JAMMU-KASHMIR-LADAKH-GILGIT-BALTISTAN-

MUZAFFARABAD, GUJARAT STATE, COASTAL ANDHRA PRADESH & YANAM,

TELANGANA,



RAYALASEEMA, INTERIOR KARNATAKA, KERALA & MAHE;



 AT ISOLATED PLACES 0VER GANGETIC WEST BENGAL, ODISHA, U, JHARKHAND,

BIHAR,

UTTAR PRADESH, RAJASTHAN, MADHYA PRADESH, KONKAN & GOA. MADHYA

MAHARASHTRA, MARATHWADA, VIDARBHA, CHHATTISGARH;



WEATHER WARNINGS:



11TH MAY (DAY 1)



 HEAVY RAIN VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER ARUNACHAL PRADESH,

ASSAM & MEGHALAYA, NAGALAND, MANIPUR, MIZORAM AND TRIPURA, SOUTH

INTERIOR KARNATAKA AND SUB HIMALAYAN WEST BENGAL & SIKKIM.



 THUNDERSTORM ACCOMPANIED WITH LIGHTNING VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED

PLACES OVER ARUNACHAL PRADESH, COSTAL KARNATAKA, LAKSHADWEEP AND

NAGALAND, MANIPUR, MIZORAM AND TRIPURA.



 THUNDERSTORM ACCOMPANIED WITH LIGHTNING & GUSTY WINDS(30-

40KMPH) VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER EAST MADHYA PRADESH,

GANGETIC WEST BENGAL, HIMACHAL PRADESH, INTERIOR KARNATAKA,

JHARKHAND, KERALA AND MAHE, MARATHWADA, RAJASTHAN, TAMILNADU &

PUDUCHERRY, TELANGANA, VIDARBHA AND UTTAR PRADESH.



 THUNDERSTORM ACCOMPANIED WITH LIGHTNING & GUSTY WINDS(40-

50KMPH) VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER ANDHRA PRADESH, ASSAM &

MEGHALAYA, BIHAR, CHHATTISGARH, GUJARAT, JAMMU AND KASHMIR AND

LADAKH,

KONKAN & GOA, MADHYA MAHARASHTRA, UTTARAKHAND AND WEST MADHYA

PRADESH.



 THUNDERSQUALL WITH WIND SPEED REACHING(50-60KMPH) VERY LIKELY AT

ISOLATED PLACES OVER HARYANA, CHANDIGARH & DELHI, PUNJAB AND SUB

HIMALAYAN WEST BENGAL & SIKKIM.



 THUNDERSTORM ACCOMPANIED WITH HAILSTORM VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED

PLACES OVER ASSAM & MEGHALAYA.



 HEAT WAVE CONDITION VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER BIHAR AND

WEST

BENGAL & SIKKIM.



 HOT AND HUMID WEATHER VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER JHARKHAND,

KERALA AND MAHE, NAGALAND, MANIPUR, MIZORAM AND TRIPURA, ODISHA AND

TAMILNADU & PUDUCHERRY.



12TH MAY (DAY 2)



 HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY RAINFALL VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER SUB

HIMALAYAN WEST BENGAL & SIKKIM.



 HEAVY RAINFALL VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER ARUNACHAL

PRADESH,

ASSAM & MEGHALAYA AND NAGALAND, MANIPUR, MIZORAM AND TRIPURA.



 THUNDERSTORM ACCOMPANIED WITH LIGHTNING VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED

PLACES OVER ARUNACHAL PRADESH, COSTAL KARNATAKA, LAKSHADWEEP AND

NAGALAND, MANIPUR, MIZORAM AND TRIPURA.



 THUNDERSTORM ACCOMPANIED WITH LIGHTNING & GUSTY WINDS(30-

40KMPH) VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER EAST MADHYA PRADESH,

GUJARAT, HIMACHAL PRADESH, INTERIOR KARNATAKA, JHARKHAND, TAMILNADU &

PUDUCHERRY AND VIDARBHA.





 THUNDERSTORM ACCOMPANIED WITH LIGHTNING & GUSTY WINDS(40-

50KMPH) VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER ANDHRA PRADESH, ASSAM &

MEGHALAYA, CHHATTISGARH, EAST RAJASTHAN, GANGETIC WEST BENGAL,

HARYANA, CHANDIGARH & DELHI, JAMMU AND KASHMIR AND LADAKH, KERALA AND

MAHE, MADHYA MAHARASHTRA, MARATHWADA, PUNJAB, TELANGANA AND WEST

MADHYA PRADESH.



 THUNDERSQUALL WITH WIND SPEED REACHING(50-60KMPH) VERY LIKELY AT

ISOLATED PLACES OVER SUB HIMALAYAN WEST BENGAL & SIKKIM.



 HEAT WAVE CONDITION VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER BIHAR AND

WEST

BENGAL & SIKKIM.



 HOT AND HUMID WEATHER VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER JHARKHAND,

KERALA AND MAHE AND TAMILNADU & PUDUCHERRY.



 SQUALLY WIND WITH SPEED 45 KMPH TO 50 KMPH GUSTING TO 55 KMPH LIKELY

TO

PREVAIL ALONG AND OFF SOMALIA COAST, OVER GULF OF MANNAR AND

ADJOINING

COMORIN AREA.=