####018005380#### WWIN40 DEMS 111200 IWB (EVENING) DATED 11-05-2025 METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS: THE WESTERN DISTURBANCE AS A TROUGH IN MIDDLE TROPOSPHERIC WESTERLIES WITH ITS AXIS AT 5.8 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL ROUGHLY ALONG LONG. 71°E TO THE NORTH OF LAT. 28°N PERSISTS. THE TROUGH FROM SAURASHTRA TO EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA ACROSS NORTH EAST ARABIAN SEA AT 3.1 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL PERSISTS. THE NORTH-SOUTH TROUGH FROM MARATHWADA TO GULF OF MANNAR ACROSS INTERIOR KARNATAKA AND TAMIL NADU AT 0.9 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL PERSISTS. THE UPPER AIR CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER NORTHEAST ASSAM & NEIGHBOURHOOD EXTENDING UPTO 5.8 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL PERSISTS. THE TROUGH FROM ABOVE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO JHARKHAND ACROSS NORTH BANGLADESH, GANGETIC WEST BENGAL AT 0.9 KM ABOVE MEAN SEAL LEVEL PERSISTS. SOUTHWEST MONSOON IS VERY LIKELY TO ADVANCE INTO SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA, SOME PARTS OF SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL AND NICOBAR ISLANDS AROUND 13 TH MAY, 2025. IT IS LIKELY TO FURTHER ADVANCE OVER SOME PARTS OF SOUTH ARABIAN SEA, MALDIVES & COMORIN AREA; SOME MORE PARTS OF SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL, ENTIRE ANDAMAN & NICOBAR ISLANDS AND ANDAMAN SEA; AND SOME PARTS OF CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL DURING SUBSEQUENT 4-5 DAYS. RAINFALL FORECAST: AT MOST PLACES OVER ANDAMAN & NICOBAR ISLANDS, ARUNACHAL PRADESH, ASSAM & MEGHALAYA; AT MANY PLACES OVER NAGALAND, MANIPUR, MIZORAM & TRIPURA, COASTAL KARNATAKA, LAKSHADWEEP; AT A FEW PLACES OVER UTTARAKHAND, HARYANA-CHANDIGARH-DELHI, PUNJAB, HIMACHAL PRADESH, JAMMU-KASHMIR-LADAKH-GILGIT-BALTISTAN-MUZAFFARABAD, GUJARAT STATE, COASTAL ANDHRA PRADESH & YANAM, TELANGANA, RAYALASEEMA, INTERIOR KARNATAKA, KERALA & MAHE; AT ISOLATED PLACES 0VER GANGETIC WEST BENGAL, ODISHA, U, JHARKHAND, BIHAR, UTTAR PRADESH, RAJASTHAN, MADHYA PRADESH, KONKAN & GOA. MADHYA MAHARASHTRA, MARATHWADA, VIDARBHA, CHHATTISGARH; WEATHER WARNINGS: 11 TH MAY (DAY 1) HEAVY RAIN VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER ARUNACHAL PRADESH, ASSAM & MEGHALAYA, NAGALAND, MANIPUR, MIZORAM AND TRIPURA, SOUTH INTERIOR KARNATAKA AND SUB HIMALAYAN WEST BENGAL & SIKKIM AND ANDAMAN & NICOBAR ISLANDS.  THUNDERSTORM ACCOMPANIED WITH LIGHTNING VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER ARUNACHAL PRADESH, COSTAL KARNATAKA, LAKSHADWEEP AND NAGALAND, MANIPUR, MIZORAM.  THUNDERSTORM ACCOMPANIED WITH LIGHTNING & GUSTY WINDS (30-40KMPH GUSTING TO 50 KMPH) VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER EAST MADHYA PRADESH, GANGETIC WEST BENGAL, INTERIOR KARNATAKA, JHARKHAND, KERALA AND MAHE AND WEST UTTAR PRADESH AND ANDAMAN & NICOBAR ISLANDS.  THUNDERSTORM ACCOMPANIED WITH LIGHTNING & GUSTY WINDS (40-50KMPH GUSTING TO 60 KMPH) VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER ANDHRA PRADESH, BIHAR, CHHATTISGARH, GUJARAT, KONKAN & GOA, MARATHWADA, VIDARBHA, TELANGANA, TAMILNADU & PUDUCHERRY, RAYALASEEMA, UTTARAKHAND, HIMACHAL PRADESH, RAJASTHAN AND WEST MADHYA PRADESH.  THUNDERSQUALL WITH WIND SPEED REACHING (50-60KMPH GUSTING TO 70 KMPH) VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER HARYANA, CHANDIGARH & DELHI AND SUB HIMALAYAN WEST BENGAL & SIKKIM, EAST UTTAR PRADESH, MADHYA MAHARASHTRA, ASSAM & MEGHALAYA AND TRIPURA.  THUNDERSQUALL WITH WIND SPEED REACHING (60-70KMPH GUSTING TO 80 KMPH) VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER PUNJAB AND JAMMU-KASHMIR-LADAKH-GILGIT-BALTISTAN- MUZAFFARABAD.  THUNDERSTORM ACCOMPANIED WITH HAILSTORM VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER ASSAM & MEGHALAYA AND PUNJAB.  HEAT WAVE CONDITION VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER BIHAR AND WEST BENGAL & SIKKIM.  HOT AND HUMID WEATHER VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER JHARKHAND, KERALA AND MAHE, NAGALAND, MANIPUR, MIZORAM AND TRIPURA, ODISHA AND TAMILNADU & PUDUCHERRY. 12 TH MAY (DAY 2) HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY RAINFALL VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER SUB HIMALAYAN WEST BENGAL & SIKKIM. HEAVY RAINFALL VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER ARUNACHAL PRADESH, ASSAM & MEGHALAYA AND NAGALAND, MANIPUR, MIZORAM AND TRIPURA.  THUNDERSTORM ACCOMPANIED WITH LIGHTNING VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER ARUNACHAL PRADESH, COSTAL KARNATAKA, LAKSHADWEEP AND NAGALAND, MANIPUR, MIZORAM AND TRIPURA.  THUNDERSTORM ACCOMPANIED WITH LIGHTNING & GUSTY WINDS(30-40KMPH) VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER EAST MADHYA PRADESH, GUJARAT, HIMACHAL PRADESH, INTERIOR KARNATAKA, JHARKHAND, TAMILNADU & PUDUCHERRY AND VIDARBHA.  THUNDERSTORM ACCOMPANIED WITH LIGHTNING & GUSTY WINDS(40-50KMPH) VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER ANDHRA PRADESH, ASSAM & MEGHALAYA, CHHATTISGARH, EAST RAJASTHAN, GANGETIC WEST BENGAL, HARYANA, CHANDIGARH & DELHI, JAMMU AND KASHMIR AND LADAKH, KERALA AND MAHE, MADHYA MAHARASHTRA, MARATHWADA, PUNJAB, TELANGANA AND WEST MADHYA PRADESH.  THUNDERSQUALL WITH WIND SPEED REACHING(50-60KMPH) VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER SUB HIMALAYAN WEST BENGAL & SIKKIM.  HEAT WAVE CONDITION VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER BIHAR AND WEST BENGAL & SIKKIM.  HOT AND HUMID WEATHER VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER JHARKHAND, KERALA AND MAHE AND TAMILNADU & PUDUCHERRY. SQUALLY WIND WITH SPEED 45 KMPH TO 50 KMPH GUSTING TO 55 KMPH LIKELY TO PREVAIL ALONG AND OFF SOMALIA COAST, OVER GULF OF MANNAR AND ADJOINING COMORIN AREA.