####018006397#### WWIN40 DEMS 120300 IWB (MORNING) DATED 12-05-2025 METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS: THE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL RECORDED OVER THE NICOBAR ISLANDS DURING PAST 24 HOURS. RAINFALL ACTIVITY OVER NICOBAR ISLANDS IS VERY LIKELY TO INCREASE BECOMING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH ISOLATED HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY RAINFALL DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. WITH EXPECTED CONTINUANCE OF RAINFALL ACTIVITY OVER THESE AREAS, CONDITIONS ARE FAVOURABLE FOR ADVANCE OF SOUTHWEST MONSOON INTO SOME PARTS OF ANDAMAN SEA, SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL AND ANDAMAN & NICOBAR ISLANDS BY TOMORROW, THE 13TH MAY, 2025. CONDITIONS ARE ALSO BECOMING FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER ADVANCE OVER SOME PARTS OF SOUTH ARABIAN SEA, MALDIVES & COMORIN AREA; SOME MORE PARTS OF SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL, ENTIRE ANDAMAN & NICOBAR ISLANDS AND ANDAMAN SEA; AND SOME PARTS OF CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL DURING SUBSEQUENT 4-5 DAYS. THE WESTERN DISTURBANCE NOW SEEN AS A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER PUNJAB & NEIGHBOURHOOD AT 3.1 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL WITH A TROUGH ALOFT IN MIDDLE TROPOSPHERIC WESTERLIES WITH ITS AXIS AT 5.8 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL RUNS ROUGHLY ALONG LONG. 71°E TO THE NORTH OF LAT. 30°N. THE TROUGH FROM SAURASHTRA TO EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA ACROSS NORTH EAST ARABIAN SEA AT 3.1 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL PERSISTS. THE UPPER AIR CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER NORTHEAST ASSAM & NEIGHBOURHOOD EXTENDING UPTO 4.5 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL PERSISTS. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION LIES OVER NORTHWEST UTTAR PRADESH & NEIGHBOURHOOD AND EXTENDS UPTO 1.5 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION LIES OVER CENTRAL PAKISTAN & ADJOINING WEST RAJASTHAN AT 1.5 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL. A TROUGH RUNS FROM CENTRAL PARTS OF BIHAR TO SOUTH JHARKHAND AND EXTENDS UPTO 1.5 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL. RAINFALL FORECAST: AT MOST PLACES OVER ANDAMAN & NICOBAR ISLANDS, ARUNACHAL PRADESH, ASSAM & MEGHALAYA, NAGALAND, MANIPUR, MIZORAM & TRIPURA, SUB-HIMALAYAN WEST BENGAL & SIKKIM, ; AT MANY PLACES OVER JAMMU-KASHMIR-LADAKH-GILGIT-BALTISTAN-MUZAFFARABAD, COASTAL KARNATAKA, KERALA & MAHE, LAKSHADWEEP; AT A FEW PLACES OVER HIMACHAL PRADESH, GUJARAT STATE, MADHYA MAHARASHTRA, MARATHWADA, COASTAL ANDHRA PRADESH & YANAM, TELANGANA, RAYALASEEMA, INTERIOR KARNATAKA; AT ISOLATED PLACES 0VER GANGETIC WEST BENGAL, ODISHA, JHARKHAND, BIHAR, WEST UTTAR PRADESH, UTTARAKHAND, HARYANA-CHANDIGARH-DELHI, PUNJAB, RAJASTHAN, MADHYA PRADESH, KONKAN & GOA, VIDARBHA, CHHATTISGARH, TAMIL NADU, PUDUCHERRY & KARAIKAL; WEATHER WARNINGS: 12TH MAY (DAY 1) HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY RAINFALL VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER NICOBAR ISLANDS, TRIPURA AND SUB-HIMALAYAN WEST BENGAL & SIKKIM. HEAVY RAINFALL VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER ARUNACHAL PRADESH, ASSAM & MEGHALAYA, KERALA & MAHE. SAURASHTRA & KUTCH, SOUTH INTERIOR KARNATAKA AND TAMIL NADU, PUDUCHERRY & KARAIKAL. THUNDERSTORM ACCOMPANIED WITH LIGHTNING VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER ARUNACHAL PRADESH, COSTAL KARNATAKA AND LAKSHADWEEP. THUNDERSTORM ACCOMPANIED WITH LIGHTNING & GUSTY WINDS(30-40KMPH) VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER ANDAMAN & NICOBAR ISLANDS, ANDHRA PRADESH, BIHAR, HIMACHAL PRADESH, JHARKHAND, KONKAN & GOA, TAMILNADU & PUDUCHERRY, TELANGANA AND VIDARBHA. THUNDERSTORM ACCOMPANIED WITH LIGHTNING & GUSTY WINDS(40-50KMPH) VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER ASSAM & MEGHALAYA, CHHATTISGARH, EAST RAJASTHAN, GANGETIC WEST BENGAL, GUJARAT, HARYANA, CHANDIGARH & DELHI, INTERIOR KARNATAKA, JAMMU AND KASHMIR AND LADAKH, KERALA AND MAHE, MADHYA PRADESH, NAGALAND, MANIPUR, MIZORAM AND TRIPURA, ODISHA AND PUNJAB. THUNDERSQUALL WITH WIND SPEED REACHING(50-60KMPH) VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER MADHYA MAHARASHTRA, MARATHWADA AND SUB HIMALAYAN WEST BENGAL & SIKKIM. THUNDERSTORM ACCOMPANIED WITH HAILSTORM VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER EAST MADHYA PRADESH. HEAT WAVE CONDITION VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER GANGETIC WEST BENGAL. HOT AND HUMID WEATHER VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER BIHAR, JHARKHAND, ODISHA AND TAMIL NADU, PUDUCHERRY & KARAIKAL. SQUALLY WIND WITH SPEED 45 KMPH TO 50 KMPH GUSTING TO 55 KMPH LIKELY TO PREVAIL ALONG AND OFF SOMALIA COAST, OVER GULF OF MANNAR & ADJOINING COMORIN AREA, SOUTH SRI LANKA COAST & ADJOINING SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL. SQUALLY WEATHER WITH WIND SPEED 35 KMPH TO 45 KMPH GUSTING TO 55 KMPH PREVAILING OVER SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA & ADJOINING SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL. 13TH MAY (DAY 2) HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ISOLATED EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER MEGHALAYA. HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY RAINFALL VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER NICOBAR ISLANDS, ARUNACHAL PRADESH, ASSAM AND TRIPURA. HEAVY RAINFALL VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER INTERIOR KARNATAKA, KERALA & MAHE, RAYALASEEMA AND SUB-HIMALAYAN WEST BENGAL & SIKKIM. THUNDERSTORM ACCOMPANIED WITH LIGHTNING VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER ARUNACHAL PRADESH, COSTAL KARNATAKA AND LAKSHADWEEP. THUNDERSTORM ACCOMPANIED WITH LIGHTNING & GUSTY WINDS(30-40KMPH) VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER ANDAMAN & NICOBAR ISLANDS, ANDHRA PRADESH, BIHAR, GUJARAT, JAMMU AND KASHMIR AND LADAKH, ODISHA, TAMILNADU & PUDUCHERRY AND VIDARBHA. THUNDERSTORM ACCOMPANIED WITH LIGHTNING & GUSTY WINDS(40-50KMPH) VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER CHHATTISGARH, EAST RAJASTHAN, HARYANA, CHANDIGARH & DELHI, INTERIOR KARNATAKA, KERALA AND MAHE, KONKAN & GOA, MADHYA PRADESH, NAGALAND, MANIPUR, MIZORAM AND TRIPURA, PUNJAB, TELANGANA AND WEST BENGAL & SIKKIM. THUNDERSQUALL WITH WIND SPEED REACHING(50-60KMPH) VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER ASSAM & MEGHALAYA, MADHYA MAHARASHTRA AND MARATHWADA. HEAT WAVE CONDITION VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER BIHAR, JHARKHAND AND GANGETIC WEST BENGAL. HOT AND HUMID WEATHER VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER JHARKHAND, KERALA AND MAHE AND TAMILNADU & PUDUCHERRY. WARM NIGHT VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER EAST UTTAR PRADESH. SQUALLY WIND WITH SPEED 45 KMPH TO 50 KMPH GUSTING TO 55 KMPH LIKELY TO PREVAIL ALONG AND OFF SOMALIA COAST, OVER GULF OF MANNAR & ADJOINING COMORIN AREA, SOUTH SRI LANKA COAST & ADJOINING SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL. SQUALLY WEATHER WITH WIND SPEED 35 KMPH TO 45 KMPH GUSTING TO 55 KMPH PREVAILING OVER SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA & ADJOINING SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL.