####018004638#### WWIN40 DEMS 121200 IWB (EVENING) DATED 12-07-2025 METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS THE MONSOON TROUGH AT MEAN SEA LEVEL CONTINUES TO PASS THROUGH BIKANER, SIKAR, HAMIRPUR, SIDHI, RANCHI, CONTAI AND THENCE SOUTHEASTWARDS TO NORTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL. THE UPPER AIR CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER HARYANA & NEIGHBOURHOOD BETWEEN 1.5 & 5.8 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL TILTING SOUTHWARDS WITH HEIGHT PERSISTS. THE UPPER AIR CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER NORTHEAST MADHYA PRADESH & NEIGHBOURHOOD EXTENDING UPTO 5.8 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL PERSISTS. THE TROUGH FROM NORTH HARYANA TO NORTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL ACROSS SOUTH UTTAR PRADESH, CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER NORTHEAST MADHYA PRADESH & NEIGHBOURHOOD, JHARKHAND, GANGETIC WEST BENGAL AT 0.9 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL PERSISTS. AN UPPER AIR CYCLONIC CIRCULATION LIES OVER NORTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL ADJOINING NORTH ODISHA AND WEST BENGAL COASTS BETWEEN 5.8 & 7.6 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL. THE UPPER AIR CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER NORTHEAST ASSAM AT 0.9 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL PERSISTS. THE WESTERN DISTURBANCE AS A TROUGH IN MIDDLE TROPOSPHERIC LEVELS WITH ITS AXIS AT 5.8 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL ROUGHLY ALONG LONG. 75OE TO THE NORTH OF LAT. 30ON PERSISTS. AN UPPER AIR CYCLONIC CIRCULATION LIKELY TO FORM OVER GANGETIC WEST BENGAL ON 16 TH JULY AND MOVE WEST NORTHWESTWARDS DURING SUBSEQUENT 3-4 DAYS. RAINFALL FORECAST: AT MOST PLACES OVER GANGETIC WEST BENGAL, JHARKHAND, UTTARAKHAND, MADHYA PRADESH, GUJARAT REGION, KONKAN & GOA, COASTAL KARNATAKA, KERALA & MAHE, LAKSHADWEEP; AT MANY PLACES OVER ANDAMAN & NICOBAR ISLANDS, ASSAM & MEGHALAYA, SUB-HIMALAYAN WEST BENGAL & SIKKIM, ODISHA, EAST UTTAR PRADESH, HIMACHAL PRADESH, RAJASTHAN, SAURASHTRA & KUTCH, MADHYA MAHARASHTRA, CHHATTISGARH, SOUTH INTERIOR KARNATAKA; AT A FEW PLACES OVER ARUNACHAL PRADESH, NAGALAND, MANIPUR, MIZORAM & TRIPURA, BIHAR, WEST UTTAR PRADESH, HARYANA- CHANDIGARH-DELHI, JAMMU-KASHMIR-LADAKH-GILGIT-BALTISTAN- MUZAFFARABAD, VIDARBHA, TELANGANA, TAMIL NADU, PUDUCHERRY & KARAIKAL, NORTH INTERIOR KARNATAKA; AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER PUNJAB, MARATHWADA, COASTAL ANDHRA PRADESH & YANAM, RAYALASEEMA. WEATHER WARNINGS: 12 TH JULY HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY RAINFALL VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER EAST RAJASTHAN, MADHYA PRADESH AND UTTAR PRADESH. HEAVY RAINFALL VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER HARYANA- CHANDIGARH-DELHI, ASSAM & MEGHALAYA, CHHATTISGARH, COASTAL KARNATAKA, GUJARAT REGION, KERALA & MAHE, KONKAN & GOA, NAGALAND, MANIPUR, MIZORAM AND TRIPURA, SOUTH INTERIOR KARNATAKA, UTTARAKHAND AND WEST RAJASTHAN. THUNDERSTORM ACCOMPANIED WITH LIGHTNING & GUSTY WINDS(30- 40KMPH) VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER GANGETIC WEST BENGAL, JAMMU-KASHMIR-LADAKH-GILGIT-BALTISTAN-MUZAFFARABAD, JHARKHAND, ODISHA, WEST MADHYA PRADESH AND WEST RAJASTHAN. THUNDERSTORM ACCOMPANIED WITH LIGHTNING VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER ANDAMAN & NICOBAR ISLANDS, ASSAM & MEGHALAYA, CHHATTISGARH, COASTAL ANDHRA PRADESH, EAST MADHYA PRADESH, EAST RAJASTHAN, GUJARAT STATE, MAHARASHTRA, NAGALAND, MANIPUR, MIZORAM AND TRIPURA, SUB HIMALAYAN WEST BENGAL & SIKKIM, TAMIL NADU PUDUCHERRY & KARAIKAL, TELANGANA, UTTAR PRADESH AND UTTARAKHAND. STRONG SURFACE WINDS VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER ANDHRA PRADESH, INTERIOR KARNATAKA, KERALA & MAHE, LAKSHADWEEP AND TELANGANA. HOT AND HUMID WEATHER VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER ANDHRA PRADESH AND TAMIL NADU PUDUCHERRY & KARAIKAL. SQUALLY WIND SPEED REACHING 45 KMPH TO 55 KMPH GUSTING TO 65 KMPH IS LIKELY TO PREVAIL ALONG AND OFF SOMALIA, OMAN & ADJOINING YEMEN COASTS, MOST PARTS OF WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA, NORTHERN PARTS OF SOUTHWEST ARABIAN SEA, GULF OF MANNAR. SQUALLY WEATHER WITH WIND SPEED 40 - 50 KMPH GUSTING TO 60 KMPH LIKELY TO PREVAIL OVER MANY PARTS OF WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA, ADJOINING PARTS OF EASTCENTRAL, SOUTHWEST ARABIAN, COMORIN AREA AND ADJOINING SOUTH KERALA COAST, SOME SOUTHERN PARTS OF SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL. 13 TH JULY HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY RAINFALL VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER GUJARAT REGION, MADHYA PRADESH, RAJASTHAN AND UTTARAKHAND. HEAVY RAINFALL VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER ASSAM & MEGHALAYA, COASTAL KARNATAKA, HIMACHAL PRADESH, JHARKHAND, KERALA & MAHE, KONKAN & GOA, MADHYA MAHARASHTRA, NAGALAND, MANIPUR, MIZORAM AND TRIPURA, ODISHA, SAURASHTRA & KUTCH, SUB HIMALAYAN WEST BENGAL & SIKKIM AND WEST UTTAR PRADESH.=