####018007698#### WWIN40 DEMS 181200 IWB (EVENING) DATED 18-05-2025 METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS: THE NORTHERN LIMIT OF MONSOON CONTINUES TO PASS THROUGH 5ON/65OE, 6ON/70OE, 6.5ON/75OE, 7ON/80OE, 9ON/85OE, 12ON/90OE, 15ON/93OE AND 19ON/97OE. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER ADVANCE OF SOUTHWEST MONSOON OVER SOME MORE PARTS OF SOUTH ARABIAN SEA, MALDIVES & COMORIN AREA; SOME MORE PARTS OF SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL; SOME MORE PARTS OF CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL, AND SOME PARTS OF NORTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL DURING NEXT 2-3 DAYS. AN UPPER AIR CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LIKELY TO FORM OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA OFF KARNATAKA COAST AROUND 21ST MAY. UNDER ITS INFLUENCE, A LOW-PRESSURE AREA IS LIKELY TO FORM OVER THE SAME REGION AROUND 22ND MAY. THEREAFTER, IT IS LIKELY TO MOVE NORTHWARDS AND INTENSIFY FURTHER. THE WESTERN DISTURBANCE AS A TROUGH IN MIDDLE TROPOSPHERIC WESTERLIES WITH ITS AXIS AT 5.8 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL NOW RUNS ROUGHLY ALONG LONG. 64OE TO THE NORTH OF LAT. 32ON. AN UPPER AIR CYCLONIC CIRCULATION LIES OVER NORTHEAST UTTAR PRADESH & NEIGHBOURHOOD AT 1.5 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL. THE TROUGH FROM CENTRAL PARTS OF PUNJAB TO NORTH BANGLADESH OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF HARYANA, CENTRAL PARTS OF UTTAR PRADESH, BIHAR, NORTH GANGETIC WEST BENGAL AT 0.9 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL PERSISTS. THE UPPER AIR CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER CENTRAL ASSAM EXTENDING UPTO 1.5 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL PERSISTS. THE TROUGH IN WESTERLIES ROUGHLY ALONG LONG. 91OE TO THE NORTH OF LAT. 23ON AT 3.1 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL PERSISTS. THE UPPER AIR CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER WEST VIDARBHA & NEIGHBOURHOOD AT 0.9 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL PERSISTS. THE TROUGH FROM ABOVE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER WEST VIDARBHA TO RAYALASEEMA ACROSS NORTH INTERIOR KARNATAKA AT 1.5 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL PERSISTS. THE UPPER AIR CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHWEST & ADJOINING SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL BETWEEN 1.5 & 5.8 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL TILTING SOUTHWESTWARDS WITH HEIGHT PERSISTS. THE TROUGH FROM SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL TO NORTH KERALA ACROSS THE ABOVE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHWEST & ADJOINING SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL AND CENTRAL PARTS OF TAMIL NADU BETWEEN 1.5 & 5.8 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL TILTING SOUTHWESTWARDS WITH HEIGHT PERSISTS. THE UPPER AIR CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER NORTHEAST ARABIAN SEA OFF SOUTH GUJARAT 1.5 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL PERSISTS. THE UPPER AIR CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF HARYANA & NEIGHBOURHOOD AT 1.5 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL HAS BECOME LESS MARKED. RAINFALL FORECAST: AT MOST PLACES OVER ANDAMAN & NICOBAR ISLANDS, ARUNACHAL PRADESH, ASSAM & MEGHALAYA, SUB-HIMALAYAN WEST BENGAL & SIKKIM, KARNATAKA, KERALA & MAHE, LAKSHADWEEP; AT MANY PLACES OVER NAGALAND, MANIPUR, MIZORAM & TRIPURA, GANGETIC WEST BENGAL, JHARKHAND, UTTARAKHAND, JAMMU- KASHMIR-LADAKH-GILGIT-BALTISTAN-MUZAFFARABAD, RAYALASEEMA; AT A FEW PLACES OVER BIHAR, HIMACHAL PRADESH, VIDARBHA, CHHATTISGARH, COASTAL ANDHRA PRADESH & YANAM, TELANGANA, TAMIL NADU, PUDUCHERRY & KARAIKAL; AT ISOLATED PLACES 0VER ODISHA, UTTAR PRADESH, PUNJAB, HARYANA-CHANDIGARH-DELHI, EAST RAJASTHAN, MADHYA PRADESH, GUJARAT STATE, KONKAN & GOA, MADHYA MAHARASHTRA, MARATHWADA; DRY WEATHER OVER WEST RAJASTHAN. WEATHER WARNINGS: 18TH MAY (DAY 1) HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY RAINFALL VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER ASSAM & MEGHALAYA, SOUTH INTERIOR KARNATAKA AND SUB HIMALAYAN WEST BENGAL & SIKKIM. HEAVY RAINFALL VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER ARUNACHAL PRADESH, BIHAR, COSTAL KARNATAKA, GANGETIC WEST BENGAL, KERALA & MAHE, KONKAN & GOA, MADHYA MAHARASHTRA, NAGALAND, MANIPUR, MIZORAM AND TRIPURA, NORTH INTERIOR KARNATAKA, RAYALASEEMA AND TAMIL NADU PUDUCHERRY & KARAIKAL. THUNDERSQUALL WITH WIND SPEED REACHING(50-60KMPH) VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER BIHAR, GANGETIC WEST BENGAL, JHARKHAND, MAHARASHTRA, ODISHA AND RAYALASEEMA. THUNDERSTORM ACCOMPANIED WITH LIGHTNING & GUSTY WINDS(40-50KMPH) VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER ASSAM & MEGHALAYA, CHHATTISGARH, COASTAL ANDHRA PRADESH, EAST RAJASTHAN, HARYANA, CHANDIGARH & DELHI, JAMMU-KASHMIR- LADAKH-GILGIT-BALTISTAN-MUZAFFARABAD, KONKAN & GOA, MADHYA PRADESH, NAGALAND, MANIPUR, MIZORAM AND TRIPURA, PUNJAB, SUB HIMALAYAN WEST BENGAL & SIKKIM, TAMIL NADU PUDUCHERRY & KARAIKAL AND UTTARAKHAND. THUNDERSTORM ACCOMPANIED WITH LIGHTNING & GUSTY WINDS(30-40KMPH) VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER GUJARAT REGION, HIMACHAL PRADESH, KERALA & MAHE, SOUTH INTERIOR KARNATAKA, TELANGANA AND WEST UTTAR PRADESH. THUNDERSTORM ACCOMPANIED WITH LIGHTNING VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER ARUNACHAL PRADESH, COSTAL KARNATAKA, LAKSHADWEEP AND NORTH INTERIOR KARNATAKA. DUST STORM VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER PUNJAB. DUST RAISING WINDS VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER WEST RAJASTHAN. HEAT WAVE CONDITIONS VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER JAMMU-KASHMIR-LADAKH-GILGIT-BALTISTAN-MUZAFFARABAD AND WEST RAJASTHAN. HOT AND HUMID WEATHER VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER ODISHA. WARM NIGHT CONDITIONS VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER WEST RAJASTHAN. SQUALLY WIND WITH SPEED 45 KMPH TO 50 KMPH GUSTING TO 55 KMPH LIKELY TO PREVAIL ALONG AND OFF OMAN COAST, ALONG AND OFF SOUTH SRI LANKA COAST, OVER GULF OF MANNAR AND ADJOINING COMORIN AREA. SQUALLY WEATHER WITH WIND SPEED 35 KMPH TO 45 KMPH GUSTING TO 55 KMPH PREVAILING ALONG AND OFF KERALA, KARNATAKA COASTS, LAKSHADWEEP AREA AND OVER FEW PARTS OF SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL. 19TH MAY (DAY 2) HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY RAINFALL VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER ASSAM & MEGHALAYA, INTERIOR KARNATAKA AND KERALA & MAHE. HEAVY RAINFALL VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER BIHAR, COSTAL KARNATAKA, KONKAN & GOA, MADHYA MAHARASHTRA, RAYALASEEMA, SUB HIMALAYAN WEST BENGAL & SIKKIM AND TAMIL NADU PUDUCHERRY & KARAIKAL. THUNDERSTORM ACCOMPANIED WITH HAILSTORM VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER HIMACHAL PRADESH AND UTTARAKHAND. THUNDERSQUALL WITH WIND SPEED REACHING(50-60KMPH) VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER BIHAR, JHARKHAND, RAYALASEEMA AND VIDARBHA. THUNDERSTORM ACCOMPANIED WITH LIGHTNING & GUSTY WINDS(40-50KMPH) VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER ASSAM & MEGHALAYA, CHHATTISGARH, COASTAL ANDHRA PRADESH, EAST RAJASTHAN, HARYANA, CHANDIGARH & DELHI, HIMACHAL PRADESH, JAMMU-KASHMIR-LADAKH-GILGIT-BALTISTAN-MUZAFFARABAD, KONKAN & GOA, MADHYA MAHARASHTRA, MADHYA PRADESH, NAGALAND, MANIPUR, MIZORAM AND TRIPURA, ODISHA, PUNJAB, TAMIL NADU PUDUCHERRY & KARAIKAL, UTTAR PRADESH, UTTARAKHAND AND WEST BENGAL & SIKKIM. THUNDERSTORM ACCOMPANIED WITH LIGHTNING & GUSTY WINDS(30-40KMPH) VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER KERALA & MAHE, SOUTH INTERIOR KARNATAKA AND TELANGANA. THUNDERSTORM ACCOMPANIED WITH LIGHTNING VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER ARUNACHAL PRADESH, COSTAL KARNATAKA AND LAKSHADWEEP. DUST RAISING WINDS VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER WEST RAJASTHAN. HEAT WAVE CONDITIONS VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER WEST RAJASTHAN. HOT AND HUMID WEATHER VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER ODISHA. WARM NIGHT CONDITIONS VERY LIKELY AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER WEST RAJASTHAN. SQUALLY WIND WITH SPEED 45 KMPH TO 50 KMPH GUSTING TO 55 KMPH LIKELY TO PREVAIL ALONG AND OFF OMAN COAST, ALONG AND OFF SOUTH SRI LANKA COAST, OVER GULF OF MANNAR AND ADJOINING COMORIN AREA. SQUALLY WEATHER WITH WIND SPEED 35 KMPH TO 45 KMPH GUSTING TO 55 KMPH PREVAILING ALONG AND OFF SOUTH MAHARASHTRA, GOA, KERALA, KARNATAKA COASTS, LAKSHADWEEP AREA AND OVER FEW PARTS OF SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL.=