####018002782#### WTIN20 DEMS 250640 REGIONAL SPECIALISED METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE-TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 25.12.2024 TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR THENEXT 168 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF 25.12.2024 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 25.12.2024. BAY OF BENGAL: Yesterday\u2019s well marked low pressure area over Southwest & adjoining Westcentral Bay of Bengal off South Andhra Pradesh-North Tamil Nadu coasts moved northwestwards and persisted over the same region at 0300 UTC of today, the 25 th December, 2024. It is likely to move further northwestwards and weaken gradually into a low pressure area over Westcentral & adjoining Southwest Bay of Bengal off South Andhra Pradesh-North Tamil Nadu coasts during next 24 hours. The latest satellite imagery indicates low level cyclonic circulation centered near 12.0 0 N and 82.4 0 E. Intensity is T1.0. Associated Scattered low and medium clouds with embedded moderate to intense convection lay over westcentral & south Bay of Bengal between latitude 8.0 0 N to 19.0 0 N and longitude 85.0 0 E to 91.0 0 E (minimum cloud top temperature is -60 0 C to -69 0 C) and weak convection over Odisha. Scattered low and medium clouds over South Gangetic West Bengal, South Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, North Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Tripura, Mizoram, Manipur and South Bangladesh. Scattered low and medium clouds with embedded moderate to intense convection lay over central & adjoining northwest & southwest Bay of Bengal. Scattered low and medium clouds with embedded weak to moderate convection lay over north Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea. *PROBABILITYOFCYCLOGENESIS(FORMATIONOFDEPRESSION)DURINGNEXT168HRS: 24 24-48 48-72 72-96 96-120 120-144 144-168 HOURS HOURS HOURS HOURS HOURS HOURS HOURS NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL *NOTE: EVERY24HRFORECASTISVALIDUPTO0300UTC(0830IST)OFNEXTDAY ARABIANSEA: Scattered low and medium clouds with embedded weak to moderate convection lay over Arabian Sea & Lakshadweep Islands area. *PROBABILITYOFCYCLOGENESIS(FORMATIONOFDEPRESSION)DURINGNEXT168HRS: 24 24-48 48-72 72-96 96-120 120-144 144-168 HOURS HOURS HOURS HOURS HOURS HOURS HOURS NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL *NOTE:EVERY24HRFORECASTISVALIDUPTO0300UTC(0830IST)OFNEXTDAY REMARKS: NIL####018002833#### WTIN20 DEMS 250640 REGIONAL SPECIALISED METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE-TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 25.12.2024 TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR THE NEXT 168 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF 25.12.2024 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 25.12.2024. BAY OF BENGAL:   Yesterday\u2019s well marked low pressure area over Southwest & adjoining Westcentral Bay of Bengal off South Andhra Pradesh-North Tamil Nadu coasts moved northwestwards and persisted over the same region at 0300 UTC of today, the 25 th December, 2024. It is likely to move further northwestwards and weaken gradually into a low pressure area over Westcentral & adjoining Southwest Bay of Bengal off South Andhra Pradesh-North Tamil Nadu coasts during next 24 hours. The latest satellite imagery indicates low level cyclonic circulation centered near 12.0 0 N and 82.4 0 E. Intensity is T1.0. Associated Scattered low and medium clouds with embedded moderate to intense convection lay over westcentral & south Bay of Bengal between latitude 8.0 0 N to 19.0 0 N and longitude 85.0 0 E to 91.0 0 E (minimum cloud top temperature is -60 0 C to -69 0 C) and weak convection over Odisha. Scattered low and medium clouds over South Gangetic West Bengal, South Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, North Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Tripura, Mizoram, Manipur and South Bangladesh. Scattered low and medium clouds with embedded moderate to intense convection lay over central & adjoining northwest & southwest Bay of Bengal. Scattered low and medium clouds with embedded weak to moderate convection lay over north Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea.    *PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) DURING NEXT 168 HRS: 24 24-48 48-72 72-96 96-120 120-144 144-168 HOURS HOURS HOURS HOURS HOURS HOURS HOURS NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL *NOTE: EVERY 24HR FORECAST IS VALID UPTO 0300 UTC (0830 IST) OF NEXT DAY   ARABIAN SEA: Scattered low and medium clouds with embedded weak to moderate convection lay over Arabian Sea & Lakshadweep Islands area. *PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) DURING NEXT 168 HRS: 24 24-48 48-72 72-96 96-120 120-144 144-168 HOURS HOURS HOURS HOURS HOURS HOURS HOURS NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL  *NOTE: EVERY 24HR FORECAST IS VALID UPTO 0300 UTC (0830 IST) OF NEXT DAY   REMARKS: NIL