####018002820####
WTIN20 DEMS 210745

         TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 21.05.2025



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR THE NEXT 168 HOURS ISSUED AT 0700 UTC OF 21.05.2025 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 21.05.2025.



BAY OF BENGAL:

Yesterday’s upper air cyclonic circulation over westcentral Bay of Bengal adjoining south Andhra Pradesh & north Tamil Nadu moved inland and lay over central parts of Andra Pradesh & adjoining south Telangana at 0000 UTC of today, the 21st May, 2025.



Scattered to broken low and medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection lay over westcentral Bay of Bengal, Andaman Sea. Scattered low and medium clouds with embedded moderate to intense convection lay over north Bay of Bengal and isolated weak to moderate convection lay over rest of Bay of Bengal. 



*PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) DURING NEXT�1668�HRS:

    24      24-48     48-72   72-96     96-120      120-144   144-168

   HOURS    HOURS     HOURS    HOURS     HOURS      HOURS      HOURS

   NIL       NIL       NIL     NIL        NIL        NIL       LOW



*NOTE: EVERY�24HR  FORECAST IS�VALID  U TO 0300�UTC  (0830�IST)  O�NEXT 



ARABIAN�SEA:

An upper air cyclonic circulation extending upto mid-tropospheric level lay over Eastcentral Arabian Sea off North Karnataka-Goa coasts at 0000 UTC of today, the 21st May 2025 and persisted over same region at 0300 UTC of today, the 21st May, 2025. Under its influence, a low-pressure area is likely to form over the same region during next 12 hours. Thereafter, it is likely to move nearly northwards and intensify further into a depression during subsequent 36 hours. 

Associated scattered to broken low and medium clouds with embedded intense convection over eastcentral Arabian Sea, south Konkan-Goa & coastal Karnataka. Minimum cloud top temperature -600C to -700C. 



Scattered to broken low and medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection lay over eastcentral Arabian Sea, Gulf of Cambay. Scattered low and medium clouds with embedded moderate to intense convection lay over northeast Arabian Sea off south Gujarat coast and also over south Arabian Sea, Lakshadweep Islands, Maldives & Comorin area and isolated weak to moderate convection lay over westcentral Arabian Sea. 



*PROBABILITY�OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) DURING NEXT 168 HRS:

24      24-48   48-72    72-96   96-120    120-144         144-168

HOURS   HOURS   HOURS    HOURS   HOURS      HOURS            HOURS

NIL      LOW    LOW       MOD    HIGH        HIGH            HIGH



 *NOTE: EVERY 24HR FORECAST IS VALID UPTO 0300 UTC (0830 IST) OF NEXT DAY



REMARKS: NIL

####018002744####
WTIN20 DEMS 210745

         TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 21.05.2025



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR THENEXT 168 HOURS ISSUED AT 0700 UTC OF 21.05.2025 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 21.05.2025.



BAY OF BENGAL:

Yesterdays upper air cyclonic circulation over westcentral Bay of Bengal adjoining south Andhra Pradesh & north Tamil Nadu moved inland and lay over central parts of Andra Pradesh & adjoining south Telangana at 0000 UTC of today, the 21st May, 2025.



Scattered to broken low and medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection lay over westcentral Bay of Bengal, Andaman Sea. Scattered low and medium clouds with embedded moderate to intense convection lay over north Bay of Bengal and isolated weak to moderate convection lay over rest of Bay of Bengal. 



*PROBABILITYOFCYCLOGENESIS(FORMATIONOF DEPRESSION) DURING NEXT1668HRS:

    24      24-48     48-72   72-96     96-120      120-144   144-168

   HOURS    HOURS     HOURS    HOURS     HOURS      HOURS      HOURS

   NIL       NIL       NIL     NIL        NIL        NIL       LOW



*NOTE: EVERY24HR FORECAST ISVALID U TO 0300UTC (0830IST) ONEXT



ARABIANSEA:

An upper air cyclonic circulation extending upto mid-tropospheric level lay over Eastcentral Arabian Sea off North Karnataka-Goa coasts at 0000 UTC of today, the 21st May 2025 and persisted over same region at 0300 UTC of today, the 21st May, 2025. Under its influence, a low-pressure area is likely to form over the same region during next 12 hours. Thereafter, it is likely to move nearly northwards and intensify further into a depression during subsequent 36 hours. 

Associated scattered to broken low and medium clouds with embedded intense convection over eastcentral Arabian Sea, south Konkan-Goa & coastal Karnataka. Minimum cloud top temperature -600C to -700C. 



Scattered to broken low and medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection lay over eastcentral Arabian Sea, Gulf of Cambay. Scattered low and medium clouds with embedded moderate to intense convection lay over northeast Arabian Sea off south Gujarat coast and also over south Arabian Sea, Lakshadweep Islands, Maldives & Comorin area and isolated weak to moderate convection lay over westcentral Arabian Sea. 



*PROBABILITYOFCYCLOGENESIS(FORMATIONOFDEPRESSION)DURINGNEXT168HRS:

24      24-48   48-72    72-96   96-120    120-144         144-168

HOURS   HOURS   HOURS    HOURS   HOURS      HOURS            HOURS

NIL      LOW    LOW       MOD    HIGH        HIGH            HIGH



*NOTE:EVERY24HRFORECASTISVALIDUPTO0300UTC(0830IST)OFNEXTDAY



REMARKS: NIL