####018003052####
WTIN20 DEMS 110646

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 11.04.2025

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL

AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR THE NEXT 168 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF

11.04.2025 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 11.04.2025.

BAY OF BENGAL:

Yesterday\u2019s Low-pressure area over westcentral Bay of Bengal (BoB) became less

marked at 0300 UTC of today, the 11th April, 2025. However, the associated cyclonic

circulation extending upto 1.5 km above mean sea level persisted over the same area.

Scattered to broken low medium clouds with embedded moderate to intense convection

lay over BoB and south Andaman Sea (minimum Cloud Top Temperature -500C to -700C).

Scattered low and medium clouds with embedded moderate to intense convection lay over

south Andaman Sea.

PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) DURING NEXT 168 HRS:

24       24-48    48-72    72-96   96-120   120-144   144-168  

HOURS    HOURS     HOURS    HOURS   HOURS     HOURS    HOURS  

NIL        NIL        NIL     NIL    NIL       NIL      NIL 



NOTE: EVERY 24HR FORECAST IS VALID UPTO 0300 UTC (0830 IST) OF NEXT DAY

ARABIAN SEA:

Scattered low and medium clouds with embedded moderate to intense convection lay over

southeast Arabian Sea, Lakshadweep islands area, Maldives & Comorin area.

PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) DURING NEXT 168 HRS:

24       24-48    48-72    72-96   96-120   120-144   144-168  

HOURS    HOURS     HOURS    HOURS   HOURS     HOURS    HOURS  

NIL        NIL        NIL     NIL    NIL       NIL      NIL 



NOTE: EVERY 24HR FORECAST IS VALID UPTO 0300 UTC (0830 IST) OF NEXT DAY

REMARKS:

Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently in phase 4 with very weak signal of

amplitude less than 1. It is predicted to move across phase 4 and 5 during next 2-3 days

and is likely to remain weak. The NCICS CFS model is indicating enhanced westerly

wind anomaly (5-7 mps), Equatorial Rossby wave (ERW) over south BoB and easterly

wind anomaly (5-7 mps) over north Andaman Sea & central BoB during next 3-4 days.

The sea surface temperature is 29-300C over the south BoB and tropical cyclone heat

potential is 130-150 KJ/cm2



. The low-level vorticity of 40-50X10-6s-1 over westcentral

BoB. High wind shear of 30-50 kt over northern part of central BoB has weakened the

system.

All the models are indicating cyclonic circulation over northwest BoB 0000 UTC of 11th



Cloud distribution: (a) Isolated: <25%, Scattered:25-50%, Broken: 51-75%, Solid:>75%, Convection Intensity: (a) Weak: Cloud Top

Temperature(CTT)>-25°C,(b)Moderate:CTT:-25°Cto-40°C,(c)Intense:CTT: -41°Cto -70°Cand(d)Very Intense::Less than -70°C

PROBABILITYOFCYCLOGENESIS(FORMATIONOFDEPRESSION):NIL:0%,LOW:1-33%,,MODERATE:34-66%ANDHIGH:67-100%

ThisisaguidanceBulletinforWMO/ESCAPPanelMembercountries.VisitrespectiveNationalwebsitesforCountryspecificBulletins

April and becoming less marked during next 12 hrs.