####018002199#### WTIN20 DEMS 140740 TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 14.09.2025 TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR THENEXT 168 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF 14.09.2025 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 14.09.2025. BAY OF BENGAL: Yesterday low pressure area over westcentral & adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal off north coastal Andhra Pradesh-south Odisha coasts lay over north Telangana & adjoining Vidarbha at 0300 UTC of today, 14th September, 2025 and extended upto 4.5 km above mean sea level tilting southwestwards with height. It is likely to move west-northwestwards towards central parts of Vidarbha & neighborhood. Thereafter, it is likely to move nearly northwards as a remnant upper air cyclonic circulation. A fresh upper air cyclonic circulationformed over southeast Bay of Bengal at 0300 UTC of today, 14th September, 2025 between 3.1 & 5.8 km above mean sea level. Scattered low and medium clouds with embedded intense convection lay over south Bay of Bengal & Andaman Sea and moderate to intense convection lay over rest of Bay of Bengal. *PROBABILITYOFCYCLOGENESIS(FORMATIONOFDEPRESSION)DURINGNEXT168HRS 24 24-48 48-72 72-96 96-120 120-144 144-168 HOURS HOURS HOURS HOURS HOURS HOURS HOURS NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL *NOTE: EVERY 24HR FORECAST IS VALID UPTO 0300 UTC (0830 IST) OF NEXT DAY ARABIANSEA: Scattered low and medium clouds with embedded moderate to intense convection lay over southeast southeast and eastcentral Arabian Sea and Gulf of Cambay. Scattered low and medium clouds with embedded isolated weak to moderate convection lay over rest of Arabian Sea & Lakshadweep Island area. *PROBABILITYOFCYCLOGENESIS(FORMATIONOFDEPRESSION)DURINGNEXT168HRS 24 24-48 48-72 72-96 96-120 120-144 144-168 HOURS HOURS HOURS HOURS HOURS HOURS HOURS NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL NOTE:EVERY24HRFORECASTISVALIDUPTO0300UTC(0830IST)OFNEXTDAY REMARKS: NIL=