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AXPZ20 KNHC 121933

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

2205 UTC Mon May 12 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

1930 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 10N105W to 09N115W. 

The ITCZ continues from 09N115W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered 

moderate convection is noted from 02N to 06N E of 90W. Scattered 

moderate and isolated strong convection is active from 05N to 14N

between 100W and 112W, and from 05N to 10N between 120W and 

130W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 6-8 ft, are in the Gulf of 

Tehuantepec. Elsewhere, a ridge extends across the waters W of 

the Baja California peninsula. The pressure gradient between the 

ridge and a trough over the Gulf of California is supporting 

gentle to moderate winds west of Baja California Norte. Moderate 

to fresh winds are in the northern Gulf of California, with 

gentle to moderate winds elsewhere in the Gulf. Light to gentle 

winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range W of Baja 

California Norte, and 4-6 ft elsewhere over the open waters off 

Mexico. Seas of 2-4 ft are in the northern Gulf of California,

with seas 3 ft or less elsewhere in the Gulf.



For the forecast, fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of 

Tehuantepec will diminish through tonight. A weak cold front will

move into Baja California Norte by late Tue, then dissipate. 

High pressure building in the wake of the front will freshen 

winds west of the Baja California peninsula through mid week, 

with large NW swell into Fri. Moderate or weaker winds and 

moderate seas, primarily in SW swell, will prevail elsewhere. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



Moderate to fresh NE winds persist across the Papagayo region to

about 91W with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Gentle to locally moderate 

winds are noted between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Light 

and variable winds are observed elsewhere. Seas of 3 to 5 ft 

dominate the remainder of the offshore forecast waters. 



For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected 

in the Papagayo region through Fri, pulsing to fresh to strong at

night through mid week. Gentle to moderate winds will persist 

between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Elsewhere mainly light

to gentle winds are expected through early this week before 

increasing S of the monsoon trough midweek. Slight to moderate 

seas, primarily in SW swell, will prevail elsewhere through the 

middle of the week. Expect moderate to rough seas in long period 

SW swell between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands Wed through 

Fri. 



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....



A ridge prevails the waters north of 20N and west of 110W. The 

pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the 

vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate trade winds N of the

ITCZ and west of 120W. Seas over these waters are in the 5-7 ft 

range. Gentle to locally moderate winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft 

are noted elsewhere in a mix of swell. 



For the forecast, a weak cold front will move into the US west

coast and Baja California Norte through late Tue. High pressure

will build in the wake of the front, and this pattern will support

moderate to fresh NE winds north of the ITCZ and west of 120W 

through early this week. Seas in the 8 to 9 ft range in NW swell 

will move into the waters north of 25N and west of 120W Tue and 

Wed, before dissipating. 



$$

AL