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AXPZ20 KNHC 130248

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0405 UTC Tue May 13 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

0230 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 11N105W to 08N120W. 

The ITCZ continues from 08N120W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered 

moderate and isolated strong convection is active from 03N to 06N

between 80W and 85W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong

convection from 08N to 12N between 95W and 105W. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



Fresh to strong gap winds, along with 5 to 7 ft seas, persist in

the Gulf of Tehuantepec this evening, but are diminishing.

Farther north, a weak cold front moving through southern

California is approaching Baja California Norte. Gentle to

moderate breezes are evident elsewhere across Mexican offshore

waters. Wave heights are 5 to 7 ft off Baja California Norte and

3 to 5 ft elsewhere except 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California. 



For the forecast, the fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of 

Tehuantepec will diminish through tonight. The weak cold front 

will move into Baja California Norte through Tue, then 

dissipate. High pressure building in the wake of the front will 

freshen winds west of the Baja California peninsula through mid 

week, with large NW swell into Fri. Moderate or weaker winds and 

moderate seas, primarily in SW swell, will prevail elsewhere. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



Moderate to fresh NE winds persist across the Papagayo region to

about 90W with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Gentle to locally moderate 

winds are noted between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Light 

and variable winds are observed elsewhere. Seas of 3 to 5 ft 

dominate the remainder of the offshore forecast waters. 



For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected 

in the Papagayo region through Fri, pulsing to fresh to strong at

night through mid week. Gentle to moderate winds will persist 

between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Elsewhere mainly light

to gentle winds are expected through early this week before 

increasing south of the monsoon trough midweek. Slight to 

moderate seas, primarily in SW swell, will prevail elsewhere 

through the middle of the week. Expect moderate to rough seas in 

long period SW swell between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands 

Wed through Fri.



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....



A ridge prevails the waters north of 20N and west of 110W. The 

pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the 

vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate trade winds N of the

ITCZ and west of 120W. Seas over these waters are in the 5-7 ft 

range. Gentle to locally moderate winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft 

are noted elsewhere in a mix of swell. 



For the forecast, a weak cold front will move into the US west

coast and Baja California Norte through Tue. High pressure will 

build in the wake of the front, and this pattern will support 

moderate to fresh NE winds north of the ITCZ and west of 120W 

through early this week. Seas in the 8 to 9 ft range in NW swell 

will move into the waters north of 25N and west of 120W Tue and 

Wed, before dissipating. 



$$

Christensen