####018004870####
AXNT20 KNHC 130501

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0615 UTC Tue May 13 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

0450 UTC.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Africa

near 10N14W and extends to near 07N18W. The ITCZ continues from 

07N18W to 02N54W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N

to 10N between 50W and 56W. Scattered showers are elsewhere within

120 nm of the ITCZ. 



GULF OF AMERICA...



The earlier analyzed frontal boundary has decayed into a surface

trough over the Florida Peninsula. Outside of a few scattered

showers and tstorms across South Florida, the Florida Keys, and

adjacent waters, active weather has shifted into the Atlantic.

1016 mb high pressure centered near 24N90W prevails across the

Gulf. SE to S winds are pulsing to moderate to fresh speeds off

Tampico, Mexico. S winds are mainly moderate elsewhere in the W

Gulf waters, and off the coast of SE Louisiana as indicate in the

latest scatterometer data. Winds are light to gentle elsewhere. 

Seas are 3-6 ft across the Gulf.



For the forecast, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms 

along with gusty winds are possible in the Florida Straits

overnight tonight. Fresh to strong southerly winds with moderate 

to rough seas related to a building high over the southeastern 

Gulf will occur in the northwestern Gulf and off the Mexico/Texas

border early Tue through Thu. 



CARIBBEAN SEA... 



Strong to near-gale force trades are pulsing in the south-central

Caribbean off the coast of Colombia, as captured by the latest

satellite scatterometer pass. Peak seas are currently to 11 ft.

Moderate to fresh trades persist in the rest of the central and SW

Caribbean, with 8-11 ft seas. Moderate to fresh trades are in the

E Caribbean, with 5-8 ft seas. A surface trough located just west

of the Lesser Antilles is producing a few showers across the

islands. In the NW Caribbean, light to gentle winds and 3-5 ft 

seas prevail. Scattered showers are in the region in the vicinity 

of a surface trough across the region.



For the forecast, widespread fresh to strong easterly winds will 

persist across the central Caribbean through Tue as a tight 

pressure gradient prevails between the Colombian low and high 

pressure in the central Atlantic. Winds offshore from northwestern

Colombia and at the Gulf of Venezuela will occasionally gust to 

gale force. Rough seas will accompany these winds offshore from 

northwestern Colombia. Winds and seas are expected to gradually 

diminish Tue night through Wed. Fresh winds with moderate to rough

seas are also expected at the northeastern basin through Tue 

evening, including the Atlantic passages. Finally, pulsing fresh 

to strong E winds will occur in the Gulf of Honduras by Wed 

afternoon.



ATLANTIC OCEAN...



Scattered moderate convection is from 22N to 31N between 76W and

80W, including the western Bahamas and east coast of Florida. SE

winds in this area are moderate to fresh, with 4-7 ft seas. This 

active weather continues ahead of a surface trough analyzed over 

the Florida Peninsula. A weak surface trough is analyzed from 

31N58W to 26N67W. The remainder of the Atlantic is influenced by

1026 mb high pressure centered near 31N39W. The most recent

scatterometer data indicates moderate to fresh trades south of 20N

and gentle to moderate trades north of 20N across the basin. Seas

are 7-10 ft south of 20N in the area of fresh winds, and 4-7 ft

elsewhere in open waters.  



For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong S to SE winds and 

rough seas will linger offshore of Florida through Tue morning as 

a surface trough moves eastward toward the western Atlantic. 

Occasional gusts to near-gale force will be possible offshore of 

northern Florida tonight. As the trough moves into the western 

Atlantic on Tue, and winds will turn to the W behind the boundary 

and weaken, before the trough lifts northeastward out of the 

region on Wed. Farther south, pulsing fresh to strong E winds are 

expected each afternoon and evening offshore of northern 

Hispaniola through Wed. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh trade

winds and rough seas in mixed NE and SE swell will prevail south 

of 25N this week, including across the Atlantic passages into the 

eastern Caribbean



$$

Mahoney