####018001908####
ABPW10 PGTW 130600

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH

PACIFIC OCEANS/130600Z-140600ZMAY2025//

RMKS/

1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):

   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.

   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.

2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):

   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:

      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR

10.4S 155.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.2S 156.4E, APPROXIMATELY 236 NM

WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL

SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 130251Z ATMS MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT AN

ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FRAGMENTED OUTER CONVECTIVE

BANDING. A 122247Z ASCAT-C PASS DEPICTS A BROAD CIRCULATION, WITH A

WEAK CORE OF 5 KNOTS AND A SWATH OF 15-20 KNOT WINDS DISPLACED OVER

120NM TO THE SOUTH. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY

FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL

WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 15-20 KNOTS, GOOD DUAL-CHANNEL UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW

AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 29-30 C, OFFSET BY MID-LEVEL

DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE NOT IN

AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPMENT, WITH ECMWF, GFS AND GEFS FORECASTING NO MODEL

DEVELOPMENT DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, WHILE NAVGEM AND

ECENS FORECAST WEAK/BORDERLINE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM

SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA

LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE

DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS

REMAINS LOW.

      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.

   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//

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