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AXPZ20 KNHC 130826

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1005 UTC Tue May 13 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

0820 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 11N105W to 08N120W. 

The ITCZ continues from 08N120W to beyond 05N140W. Numerous

moderate to isolated strong convection is active from 03N to 07N

east of 85W, and from 03N to 10N between 95W and 105W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



A weak cold front is approaching Guadalupe Island off Baja

California Norte. Recent scatterometer satellite data showed

fresh winds following the front, and moderate to fresh S winds

ahead of the front over the northern Gulf of California. Farther

south, moderate to fresh N winds may still be lingering across 

the Gulf of Tehuantepec as a gap wind event winds down. Light to

gentle breezes persist elsewhere. Wave heights are 5 to 6 ft 

north of Punta Eugenia, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere across Mexican 

offshore waters, except for 2 to 4 ft in the Gulf of California.



For the forecast, the weak cold front approaching Guadalupe 

Island will slow down and weaken as it moves into Baja 

California Norte and the northern Gulf of California later today,

before dissipating tonight into Wed. Strong winds may briefly 

pulse across the northern Gulf of California today ahead of and 

following the front. High pressure building in the wake of the 

front will freshen winds west of the Baja California peninsula 

through mid week, with large NW swell into Fri. Moderate or 

weaker winds and moderate seas, primarily in SW swell, will 

prevail elsewhere.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated moderate to 

fresh NE winds continuing across the Papagayo region to about 

90W. A concurrent altimeter satellite pass confirmed wave heights

of 4 to 6 ft in this plume. Light to gentle breezes are observed

elsewhere, with 3 to 5 ft combined seas primarily in SW swell. 



For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected in the

Papagayo region through Fri, pulsing to fresh to strong at night into

mid week. Gentle to moderate winds will persist elsewhere. 

Expect moderate to rough seas in long period SW swell between 

Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands Wed and Thu. Slight to 

moderate seas, primarily in SW swell, will prevail elsewhere. 



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....



A ridge prevails the waters north of 20N and west of 110W. The 

pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the 

vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate trade winds N of the

ITCZ and west of 120W. Seas over these waters are in the 6 to 7 

ft range. Gentle to locally moderate winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft

are noted elsewhere in a mix of swell. 



For the forecast, a weak cold front will move into the US west

coast and Baja California Norte today, then dissipate. High 

pressure will build in the wake of the front, and this pattern 

will support moderate to fresh NE winds north of the ITCZ and 

west of 120W through mid week. Seas in the 8 to 9 ft range in NW

swell will move into the waters north of 25N and west of 120W

through mid week, and combine with seas from trade winds from 

10N to 20N west of 130W through the latter part of the week.



$$

Christensen