####018000572#### ABIO10 PGTW 131800 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/131800Z-141800ZMAY2025// RMKS/ 1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.// NNNN ####018006003#### AXNT20 KNHC 131733 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Tue May 13 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1620 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Sierra Leone near 12.5N13W, then extends southwestward to near 05N18W. An ITCZ continues from 05N18W across 02N35W to near Macapa in the State of Amapa, Brazil. Scattered moderate convection is present south of the monsoon trough from 01N to 06N between 10W and 18W. Scattered moderate convection is seen near the ITCZ fro 01N to 06N between 18W and the coast of northeastern Brazil/French Guiana. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Caribbean waters near Costa Rica and northwestern Colombia. ...GULF OF AMERICA... The southwestern end of a frontal trough is causing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near the Florida Keys. A 1015 mb high pressure over the southeastern Gulf is strengthening this morning. Light to gentle winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft exist at the south-central and southeastern Gulf. Moderate to fresh S winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are found at the west-central Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SSE winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail elsewhere in the Gulf. For the forecast, high pressure over the southeastern Gulf should steadily strengthen this afternoon through Wed then drift eastward towards the Florida Peninsula where it will prevail through the weekend. This will tighten the pressure gradient against building lower pressure over the far western Gulf and will lead to fresh to strong southerly winds and moderate to rough seas through Sat. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Two modest surface troughs are producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the eastern basin, and in the Gulf of Honduras. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the Caribbean Sea. Tight gradient between a broad surface ridge near 25N and low pressure over northern Colombia is sustaining strong to near-gale easterly winds and seas of 9 to 11 ft at the south-central basin. Mainly fresh ENE to E winds with 6 to 9 ft seas are evident at the north-central and southwestern basin, except gentle to moderate ENE winds with 5 to 7 ft seas in moderate NE swell near Costa Rica and Panama. Moderate to locally fresh ENE winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft dominate the eastern basin, including the Mona Passage. Light to gentle winds with 3 to 5 ft seas prevail at the northwestern basin. For the forecast, high pressure N of Bermuda will continue to support strong to near gale-force NE to E winds offshore Colombia through late Wed along with moderate to rough seas. The high pressure will lift N and then SE towards the central Atlantic subtropical waters, which will keep mainly moderate to fresh trades across the central and eastern Caribbean Wed night through Thu night, and gentle to moderate easterly winds the remainder of the forecast period. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate to rough seas will prevail over the tropical Atlantic waters and passages through Sat night. Otherwise, pulsing fresh to strong E winds are forecast in the Gulf of Honduras from late Wed through Sat night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weakening frontal trough curves southwestward from off the Georgia coast near 31N79W to just southeast of the Florida Keys. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring near this boundary from the northwest Bahamas northward to beyond 31N between 74W and 80W. Farther east, a surface trough extends southwestward from the north-central Atlantic across 31N57W to 27N67W. Patchy showers are found up to 50 nm along either side of this feature. Convergent trades are coupling with a broad upper- level trough in the vicinity to generate scattered moderate convection just east of the Lesser Antilles. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. An elongated 1026 mb high near 30N37W is supporting gentle to moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft seas north of 23N between 35W and 70W. To the west, moderate to fresh with locally strong SE to S winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are evident near the aforementioned cold front north of 20N between 70W and 78W. Gentle to moderate W to SW winds with seas at 3 to 6 ft exist off the eastern Florida coast. For the tropical Atlantic from 05N to 20N/23N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh NE to E winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft dominate. Gentle to moderate ENE to E winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in mixed moderate swells prevail for the rest of the Atlantic west of 35W. For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong S to SE winds and rough seas to 8 ft will linger through this evening across the offshore waters NE of Freeport, N of 28N between 74W and 77W, associated with the remnants of a stationary front. As the front lifts northeastward into the western Atlantic tonight and Wed, winds will become SW behind the front and weaken. Farther south, pulsing fresh to strong E winds are expected each afternoon and evening offshore of northern Hispaniola through Thu. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh trade winds and rough seas in mixed NE and SE swell will prevail south of 25N this week, including across the Atlantic passages into the eastern Caribbean. $$ Stripling