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AXNT20 KNHC 131856

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1815 UTC Tue May 13 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

1620 UTC.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Sierra

Leone near 07.5N13W, then extends southwestward to near 05N18W. 

An ITCZ continues from 05N18W across 02N29W to the coast of 

Brazil near 03N51W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection

is present from 01N to 07N between 05W and 30W. Scattered 

moderate to strong convection is seen near the ITCZ from 03N to 

11N between 40W and 57W. Scattered moderate convection is

occurring from 12.5N to 15.5N between 56W and 60W.



The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering

widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the 

Caribbean waters near Costa Rica and southeastern Nicaragua.



...GULF OF AMERICA...



Generally dry and stable conditions are dominating the Gulf basin

today, behind the exiting frontal trough offshore of the Atlantic

waters of Florida and across the Straits of Florida. Widely

scattered weak showers across across northeast portions of the

Gulf north of 27N between 90W and Tampa Bay. Other scattered

showers are persisting across the Straits between the Florida Keys

and Cuba. Weak high pressure of 1015 mb is centered across the 

southeast Gulf near 25N85W. The associated anticyclonic flow is

producing moderate to fresh southerly winds to the west of 94.5W,

where seas are 4 to 6 ft. Elsewhere west through north of the

high, moderate anticyclonic winds become westerly into the Florida

Big Bend region, where seas are 2 to 4 ft. 



For the forecast, high pressure over the southeastern Gulf should

steadily strengthen this afternoon through Wed then drift 

eastward towards the Florida Peninsula, where it will prevail 

through the weekend. This will tighten the pressure gradient 

against building lower pressure over the far western Gulf and will

lead to fresh to strong southerly winds and moderate to rough 

seas through Sat.



...CARIBBEAN SEA... 



A surface trough, the remnants of a recent cold front, extends

across western Cuba southwestward to near 18N86W, with widely

scattered weak showers within 90 nm to the east. A second trough 

is aligned east to west across the Gulf of Honduras, with 

scattered showers and a few squalls to the north of it, moving 

northwestward. Elsewhere, Atlantic high pressure extends a ridge 

generally east to west along 29N-30N to offshore of Florida. The 

associated pressure gradient between this ridge and 1008 mb low 

pressure over NW Colombia is yielding fresh to strong winds across

the south central Caribbean south of 14N between 70W and 78W, 

where seas are 8 to 11 ft. Moderate to fresh trades are elsewhere 

to the north and east of this area. An easterly wave can clearly 

be seen across the eastern Caribbean between 63W and 66W, with 

scattered showers and a few squalls surrounding this surface 

trough and extending eastward across the Lesser Antilles and into 

the adjacent Atlantic. Seas are 4 to 6 ft east of 70W and 5 to 8 

ft north of 14N between 70W and 80W. Gentle to moderate winds 

prevail elsewhere across northwest portions with seas 4 ft or 

less.



For the forecast, high pressure N of Bermuda will continue to 

support strong to near gale-force NE to E winds offshore Colombia 

through late Wed along with moderate to rough seas. The high 

pressure will lift N and then SE towards the central Atlantic 

subtropical waters, which will keep mainly moderate to fresh 

trades across the central and eastern Caribbean Wed night through 

Thu night, and gentle to moderate easterly winds through the 

remainder of the forecast period. Moderate to fresh trades and 

moderate to rough seas will prevail over the tropical Atlantic 

waters and passages through Sat night. Otherwise, pulsing fresh to

strong E winds are forecast in the Gulf of Honduras from late Wed

through Sat night. 



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



High pressure dominates most of the Atlantic basin today. An old

frontal trough separates two high centers, and passes through

31N52W to 29N66W. Scattered showers are about the trough. To the

north of this frontal trough, a 1027 mb high is centered near

35N61W. The remnants of yet another cold front are now a surface

trough extending from 31N79W to southeast Florida near Palm Beach.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue well east of this

boundary, from the NW Bahamas north-northeasward to beyond 31N73W,

supported by a broad upper trough across the Gulf of America. The

pressure gradient between the high north of the area and this 

frontal trough near Florida is producing fresh to strong SE to S 

winds between the trough and 73W, where seas are 5 to 8 ft, while 

light west winds and seas of 3 to 4 ft are west of the trough.

Elsewhere west of 55W, an east to west ridge across the central 

and eastern Atlantic is producing moderate to fresh easterly winds

south of 24N, becoming southeasterly west of 70W and into the

Bahamas. Small clusters of showers and thunderstorms continue

across the Atlantic waters east of the Lesser Antilles, ans

supported by an upper trough just west of this area. Seas across

the area are 4 to 6 ft north of 20N and 6 to 9 ft south of 20N 

into the tropics. 



An elongated 1026 mb high near 30N35W is producing an east to west

ridge along 29N-30N between 20W and 60W. The pressure gradient to

the south of the ridge is supporting gentle to moderate winds and

3 to 5 ft seas north of 24N between 30W and 55W. South of 24N, 

moderate to fresh NE to E winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft dominate. 

Gentle to moderate ENE to E winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in mixed 

moderate swells prevail for the rest of the Atlantic west of 35W.



For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong S to SE winds and 

rough seas to 8 ft will linger through this evening across the 

offshore waters NE of the Bahamas, N of 28N between 74W and 77W, 

associated with the remnants of a frontal trough. As the trough 

lifts northeastward into the western Atlantic tonight and Wed, 

winds will become SW behind the front and weaken. Farther south, 

pulsing fresh to strong E winds are expected each afternoon and 

evening offshore of northern Hispaniola through Thu. Elsewhere, 

moderate to locally fresh trade winds and rough seas in mixed NE 

and SE swell will prevail south of 25N this week, including across

the Atlantic passages into the eastern Caribbean. 



$$

Stripling