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AXNT20 KNHC 132057

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0015 UTC Wed May 14 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

2000 UTC.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic off the coast of Africa

near 07N13W and extends SW to near 05N18W. The ITCZ continues

from 05N18W to 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted

from 02N to 06N between 10W and 25W, and from 01S to 04N between

33W and 41W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is

noted from 03N to 08N between 40W and 48W. 



...GULF OF AMERICA...



High pressure dominates the Gulf waters anchored by a 1016 mb 

high centered over the SE Gulf. Light to gentle winds are in the 

vicinity of the high center. Moderate to fresh southerly return 

flow is over the western Gulf. Gentle to locally moderate winds 

are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range over the NW 

Gulf, and 2-4 ft elsewhere. 



For the forecast, high pressure over the southeastern Gulf 

should steadily strengthen this afternoon through Wed then drift 

eastward towards the Florida Peninsula where it will prevail 

through the weekend. This will tighten the pressure gradient 

against building lower pressure over the far western Gulf and 

will lead to fresh to strong southerly winds and moderate to 

rough seas through Sat. 



...CARIBBEAN SEA... 



A ridge of high pressure extends over the Atlantic waters north

of the area. The pressure gradient between this ridge and a 1006

mb low pressure over NW Colombia is supporting fresh to strong 

winds across the south central Caribbean, where seas are 7 to 10

ft. Moderate to fresh trades are elsewhere E of 80W. Seas are 4 

to 6 ft east of 70W and 5 to 8 ft north of 14N between 70W and 

80W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the western Caribbean,

where seas are in the 2-4 ft range. 



For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge of high 

pressure N of the area and the Colombian low will support 

strong to near gale-force NE to E winds offshore Colombia through

late Wed along with moderate to rough seas. Mainly moderate to 

fresh trades are expected across the central and eastern 

Caribbean Wed night through Thu night, and gentle to moderate 

easterly winds the remainder of the forecast period. Moderate to 

fresh trades and moderate to rough seas will prevail over the 

tropical Atlantic waters and passages through Sat night. 

Otherwise, pulsing fresh to strong E winds are forecast in the 

Gulf of Honduras from late Wed through Sat night.



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



A surface trough is over the waters east the coast of northern 

Florida. The rest of the discussion waters are dominated by high

pressure, anchored by a 1026 mb high centered near 34N62W, and a

1024 mb high centered near 31N34W. Fresh southerly winds are 

found within 180 nm east of the trough, where seas are in the 6-8

ft range. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 5-6 ft are found 

west of the trough. Elsewhere west of 55W, gentle to moderate 

winds, and seas of 5-7 ft, prevail. E of 55W, gentle to moderate

winds and 3-5 ft seas prevail north of 24N. South of 24N, 

moderate to fresh NE to E winds and seas of 6-9 ft are noted. 



For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong S to SE winds and 

rough seas to 8 ft will linger through this evening across the 

offshore waters NE of Freeport, N of 28N between 74W and 77W, 

associated with the remnants of a stationary front. As the front 

lifts northeastward into the western Atlantic tonight and Wed, 

winds will become SW behind the front and weaken. Farther south, 

pulsing fresh to strong E winds are expected each afternoon and 

evening offshore of northern Hispaniola through Thu. Elsewhere, 

moderate to locally fresh trade winds and rough seas in mixed NE 

and SE swell will prevail south of 25N this week, including 

across the Atlantic passages into the eastern Caribbean. 



$$

AL