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AXPZ20 KNHC 132326

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

2205 UTC Tue May 13 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

2000 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 08N93W to 09N115W. The

ITCZ continues from 09N115W to beyond 06N140W. Numerous moderate

to isolated strong convection is active from 03N to 10N east of 

88W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted 

from 04N to 10N between 88E and 102W, and from 02N to 10N between

120W and 140W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



A weak cold front extends across weak cold front extends across 

the northern Gulf of California with moderate winds just ahead of

the front. Moderate winds prevail elsewhere in the Gulf of 

California, where seas are in the 2-4 ft range. Moderate to fresh

winds, and seas of 6-7 ft, are found off Baja California Norte. 

Gentle to moderate winds are off Cabo San Lucas, Cabo Corrientes,

and south of Southern Mexico. Gentle winds are elsewhere over 

the open waters off Mexico. Elsewhere over the open waters, seas 

are in the 4-5 ft range. 



For the forecast, the front will dissipate tonight into Wed. 

Strong winds may briefly pulse tonight following the front. High 

pressure building in the wake of the front will freshen winds 

west of the Baja California peninsula and off Cabo Corrientes 

through mid week, with large NW swell west of the Baja peninsula 

into Fri. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas, primarily 

in SW swell, will prevail elsewhere.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 5-6 ft are over and 

downstream the Gulf of Papagayo. Gentle to moderate winds, and 

seas of 5-6 ft are between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. 

Gentle winds, and seas of 4-5 ft, prevail elsewhere. 



For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected 

in the Papagayo region through Fri before diminishing this 

weekend. Winds in Papagayo will pulse to fresh to strong tonight.

Gentle to moderate winds will persist elsewhere. Expect moderate

to rough seas in long period SW swell between Ecuador and the 

Galapagos Islands Wed and Thu. Slight to moderate seas, primarily

in SW swell, will prevail elsewhere. 



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....



A ridge prevails the waters north of 20N and west of 110W. The 

pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the 

vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate trade winds N of the

ITCZ and west of 120W. NW swell has increase seas to 8 ft over

the waters N of 28N and W of 125W. Elsewhere seas N of the ITCZ 

are in the 6 to 7 ft range. Gentle to locally moderate winds and 

seas of 5 to 7 ft are noted elsewhere in a mix of swell. 



For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure 

over the waters N of 20N and low pressure in the vicinity of the

ITCZ will support moderate to fresh NE winds north of the ITCZ 

and west of 120W through mid week. Seas in the 8 to 9 ft range in

NW swell will move across the waters north of 25N and west of 

120W through mid week, and combine with seas from trade winds 

from 10N to 20N west of 130W through the latter part of the week.



$$

AL