####018003420####
AXPZ20 KNHC 140255

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0405 UTC Wed May 14 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

0230 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 10N100W to 09N115W. 

The ITCZ continues from 09N115W to beyond 06N140W. Numerous 

moderate to isolated strong convection is active from 06N to 10N

between 80W and 105W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



The weak cold front that was moving into Baja California Norte has

dissipated. A surface ridge extends from from 1036 mb high 

pressure near 40N140W southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands.

Mostly moderate NW winds are likely off Baja California, and

along the coast of southern Mexico between Manzanillo and Puerto

Angel. NW swell up to 7 ft is west of Guadalupe Island. Wave

heights are 3-5 ft elsewhere over open waters. Gentle breezes 

persist over the Gulf of California, with 1-3 ft. 



For the forecast, the current pattern will freshen winds west of

the Baja California peninsula and off the coasts of Jalisco and 

Colima through Wed night, with large NW swell west of the Baja 

peninsula into Fri. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas, 

primarily in SW swell, will prevail elsewhere.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 5-6 ft are over and 

downstream the Gulf of Papagayo. Gentle to moderate winds, and 

seas of 5-6 ft are between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. 

Gentle winds, and seas of 4-5 ft, prevail elsewhere. 



For the forecast, strong gap winds across the Papagayo region 

will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds through Fri, then 

dimnish further Sat. Gentle to moderate winds will persist 

elsewhere. Expect moderate to rough seas in long period SW swell 

between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands Wed and Thu. Slight to 

moderate seas, primarily in SW swell, will prevail elsewhere. 



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....



A ridge prevails the waters north of 20N and west of 110W. The 

pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the 

vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate trade winds north of

the ITCZ and west of 120W. NW swell has increase seas to 8 ft 

over the waters N of 28N and W of 125W. Elsewhere seas north of 

the ITCZ are in the 6-7 ft range. Gentle to locally moderate 

winds and seas of 5-6 ft are noted elsewhere in a mix of swell. 



For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure 

over the waters north of 20N and low pressure in the vicinity of

the ITCZ will support moderate to fresh NE winds north of the 

ITCZ and west of 120W through mid week. Seas in the 8 to 9 ft 

range in NW swell will move across the waters north of 25N and 

west of 120W through mid week, and combine with seas from trade 

winds from 10N to 20N west of 130W through the latter part of the

week.



$$

Christensen