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AXPZ20 KNHC 140858

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1005 UTC Wed May 14 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

0830 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 11N100W to 09N125W. 

The ITCZ continues from 09N125W to beyond 06N140W. Numerous 

moderate to isolated strong convection is active from 05N to 12N

between 80W and 105W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



A surface ridge extends from from 1036 mb high pressure near 

40N140W southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands. This follows

a weak front that dissipated over Baja California Norte late

yesterday. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh

NW winds off Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro. A

concurrent altimeter satellite pass indicated 7 to 8 ft seas off

northern Baja California Norte, and 6 to 7 ft seas elsewhere off

Baja California. The scatterometer also indicated fresh to 

locally strong NW winds funneling along the coast of southern 

Mexico from Cabo Corrientes to Acapulco, and the altimeter data

showed 3 to 5 ft seas off southern Mexico.  



For the forecast, the current pattern will support continuing

fresh to locally strong winds west of the Baja California 

peninsula and off the coasts of Jalisco and Colima through 

tonight, with large NW swell west of the Baja peninsula into Fri.

Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas, primarily in SW 

swell, will prevail elsewhere. Looking ahead, a late season cold 

front will move into Baja California and the northern Gulf of 

California Sat and Sat night. Strong SW gap winds and rough seas 

are possible late Sat over the northern Gulf of California ahead 

of the front.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



Clusters of thunderstorms are active this morning across the

offshore waters from Costa Rica to El Salvador. Fresh to strong 

winds, and seas of 5-6 ft are over and downstream the Gulf of 

Papagayo. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 5-6 ft are 

between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Gentle winds, and seas

of 4-5 ft, prevail elsewhere. 



For the forecast, numerous showers and thunderstorms will 

persist over the offshore waters from Colombia to Costa Rica 

through at least Sat. Strong gap winds across the Papagayo region

will diminish today. Gentle to moderate winds prevailing across 

the region through Sat, then diminish further through Sun. Expect

moderate to rough seas in long period SW swell between Ecuador 

and the Galapagos Islands Wed and Thu. Slight to moderate seas, 

primarily in SW swell, will prevail elsewhere. 



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....



A ridge prevails the waters north of 20N and west of 110W. The 

pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the 

vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate trade winds north of

the ITCZ and west of 120W. NW swell has increase seas to 8 ft 

over the waters north of 28N and W of 125W. Elsewhere seas north

of the ITCZ are in the 6-7 ft range. Gentle to locally moderate 

winds and seas of 5-6 ft are noted elsewhere in a mix of swell. 



For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure 

over the waters north of 20N and low pressure in the vicinity of

the ITCZ will support moderate to fresh NE winds north of the 

ITCZ and west of 120W through mid week. Seas in the 8 to 9 ft 

range in NW swell will move across the waters north of 25N and 

west of 120W through mid week, and combine with seas from trade 

winds from 10N to 20N west of 130W through the latter part of the

week.



$$

Christensen