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ABPW10 PGTW 010900

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH

PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/010900Z-020600ZJUL2025//

RMKS/

1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):

   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:

      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR

14.8N 127.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 126.8E, APPROXIMATELY 240 NM

NORTHEAST OF LEGAZPI.  MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A

SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH ISOLATED

CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE CIRCULATION. A RECENT 010147Z ASCAT-C PASS

SHOWS TURNING IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY, CONTINUING TO SHOW A MORE

DEFINED CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A HIGHLY FAVORABLE

ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)

OF 10-15 KTS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE

TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 30-31 C. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE

IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH A LOW LIKELIHOOD OF

DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS

ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS

ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A

SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR

21.1N 148.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 148.2E, APPROXIMATELY 400 NM

EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A

010518Z SSMIS F18 91 GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL

CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OBSCURED BY DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE

NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES

MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (29-30 C)

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, OFFSET BY

MODERATE (15-20 KTS) SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AS RELATIVELY DRY

AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL

TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 90W WILL CONTINUE NORTH-

NORTHWESTWARD WITH GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM

SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA

LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE

DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS

IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.

   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.

2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):

   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.

   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.

3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(2) TO

MEDIUM.////

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