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AXPZ20 KNHC 150214

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0405 UTC Thu May 15 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

0210 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 08N100W to 1009 mb low

pressure near 08N90W to 11N110W to 10N115W. The ITCZ continues 

from 10N115W to beyond 08N140W. Numerous moderate to isolated 

strong convection is active from 05N to 10N between 95W and 110W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



A ridge extends from 1034 mb high pressure near 37N139W 

southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands, while low pressure 

prevails over Mexico. The pressure gradient between these

features is supporting moderate to fresh NW winds off the Baja 

California peninsula as well as off Cabo Corrientes. Gentle to 

moderate winds are elsewhere over the discussion waters, 

including in the Gulf of California. Seas are in the 8-9 ft 

range off Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro, and 5-7 ft 

elsewhere off Baja California Sur. Fresh to strong may be active

along the coasts of Jalisco and Colima. Seas of 4-6 ft are 

elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. Seas are 3 ft or less 

over the Gulf of California.



For the forecast, the pattern will support fresh winds west of 

the Baja California peninsula and off the coasts of Jalisco and 

Colima through tonight, with large NW swell west of the Baja 

peninsula into Fri. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas, 

primarily in SW swell, will prevail elsewhere. A trough will move

into Baja California and the northern Gulf of California Sat and

Sat night, followed by rough seas in NW swell Sun and Mon west 

of Baja California Norte. Strong SW gap winds and rough seas are 

possible late Sat over the northern Gulf of California ahead of 

the trough. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



Moderate to locally fresh winds are over and downstream the Gulf

of Papagayo. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere north of the 

monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds are south of the monsoon

trough. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range between Ecuador and the 

Galapagos Islands, reaching 8 ft south of the Galapagos Islands.

Elsewhere, seas are in the 4-5 ft range.



For the forecast, numerous showers and thunderstorms will 

persist over the offshore waters from Colombia to Costa Rica 

through at least Sat. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail 

across the region through Sat, then diminish through Mon. Expect 

moderate to rough seas in long period SW swell between Ecuador 

and the Galapagos Islands through Thu. Slight to moderate seas, 

primarily in SW swell, will prevail elsewhere. 



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....



A ridge prevails over the waters north of 20N and west of 110W. 

The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the

vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate trade winds north of

the ITCZ and west of 120W. NW swell is bringing seas of 7-9 ft 

over the waters north of a line from 20N140W to 26N120W. Gentle 

to locally moderate winds and seas of 5-6 ft are noted elsewhere 

in a mix of swell. 



For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure 

over the waters north of 20N and low pressure in the vicinity of

the ITCZ will support moderate to fresh NE winds north of the 

ITCZ and west of 120W through early next week. The NW swell will

combine with seas from trade winds from 10N to 20N west of 130W 

through the latter part of the week.



$$

Christensen