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AXNT20 KNHC 150545

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0615 UTC Thu May 15 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

0500 UTC.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coastal border of 

Guinia-Bissau/Senegal, then curves southwestward to 06N18W. An

ITCZ continues westward from 06N18W through 02N35W to near the

French Guiana coast at 03N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated 

strong convection is noted south of the monsoon trough from 02N 

to 06N between 10W and 18W, and up to 220 nm north and 100 nm

south of the ITCZ.



The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering

isolated thunderstorms across the Caribbean waters near Panama and

northwestern Colombia.



...GULF OF AMERICA...



A surface ridge reaches west-southwestward from a 1017 mb high at

the east-central Gulf to just south of Tampico, Mexico. Moderate

to fresh SE to S winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are present at the

northwestern Gulf. Light to gentle winds with 1 to 2 ft seas exist

at the eastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate ENE to SSE winds and seas

at 3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.



For the forecast, the 1017 mb high will drift northeastward across

the Florida Peninsula and merge with the Atlantic ridge tonight 

through Fri. This will maintain fresh to briefly strong SE to S 

return flow across most of the western Gulf through the weekend. 



...CARIBBEAN SEA... 



A ridge of high pressure near 25N is sustaining trade winds across

the entire Caribbean Sea. Convergent trades are producing widely

scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near the Lesser

Antilles, Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. Refer to the Monsoon

Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the Caribbean Sea.

Fresh to strong E winds with 4 to 6 ft seas are evident in the

Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate E to ESE winds and 2 to 4 ft

seas exist elsewhere in the northwestern basin, including waters 

near the Windward Passage. Mostly fresh NE to E winds and seas of 

4 to 6 ft are seen the south-central and southeastern basin. Light

to gentle winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft are noted near Costa Rica 

and Panama. Moderate ENE to E winds with 4 to 6 ft seas dominate 

the remainder of the Caribbean Sea.



For the forecast, the aforementioned surface ridge will continue 

to support strong NE to E winds offshore of Colombia and

northwestern Venezuela, while fresh trades will prevail east of 

80W through Thu. The high will slide southeastward and across the

central Atlantic subtropical waters Thu through the weekend, 

which will keep mainly moderate to fresh trades across the central

and eastern basin through Fri night, and gentle to moderate 

easterly winds through the weekend. Fresh trades and moderate to 

rough seas in easterly trade wind swell will prevail over the 

tropical Atlantic waters and passages through Sat night. 

Otherwise, pulsing fresh to strong E winds will develop each night

across the Gulf of Honduras from tonight through the weekend. 



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



A dissipating cold front curves southwestward from the central

Atlantic across 31N40W to 29N50W, then continues westward as a

surface trough to 28N64W. Patchy showers are occurring near and up

to 160 nm south of this boundary. Convergent southerly winds are

producing widely scattered moderate convection southwest of

Bermuda, north of 29N between 68W and 73W. To the south, another 

surface trough is generating scattered moderate convection north 

of French Guiana. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for

additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.



Gentle to moderate NE to SE winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft are

evident near the cold front and surface trough, north of 28N 

between 35W and 65W. A surface ridge extending west-southwestward

from a 1021 mb high near 30N27W to beyond the central Bahamas. 

This feature is supporting light to gentle winds and seas of 2 to 

4 ft from 22N to 28N between 35W and 65W. Farther west, gentle to 

moderate SE to SSW winds and 3 to 6 ft seas are present north of 

22N and west of 65W. For the tropical Atlantic from 05N to 22N 

between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh NE to E 

winds with seas of 6 to 9 ft exist. Gentle to moderate E to SE 

winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft in mixed moderate swells prevail 

elsewhere in the Atlantic west of 35W.



For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh trade winds are

expected to persist south of 25N and east of 77W, while light to 

moderate SE winds prevail elsewhere through Fri. The aforementioned

1021 mb high will slide southeastward into the central Atlantic 

through the upcoming weekend, with ridging extending westward into

central Florida. This will gradually lead to anticyclonic winds 

across the entire area by the weekend. Moderate to fresh trade 

winds and rough seas in mixed NE and E swell will prevail south of

22N this week, including the Atlantic passages leading into the 

eastern Caribbean.



$$



Chan