####018004584####
AXPZ20 KNHC 150838

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1005 UTC Thu May 15 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

0830 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 1010 mb low pressure 

near 08N91W to 11N115W to 10N120W. The ITCZ continues from 

10N120W to beyond 08N140W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong 

convection is active from 06N to 12N between 98W and 113W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



A ridge extends from 1034 mb high pressure near 36N139W 

southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands, while low pressure 

prevails over Mexico. Recent scatterometer satellite passes 

indicated the pressure gradient between these features is 

supporting moderate to fresh NW winds off the Baja California 

peninsula, and fresh to strong NW winds off the coasts of Jalisco

and Colima. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere over the 

discussion waters, including in the Gulf of California. 

Concurrent altimeter satellite data confirmed seas are in the 8-9

ft range off Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro, and 5-7 

ft elsewhere off Baja California Sur. Seas of 4-6 ft are 

elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. Seas are 3 ft or less 

over the Gulf of California.



For the forecast, the pattern will support fresh winds west of 

the Baja California peninsula and off the coasts of Jalisco and 

Colima through late today, with large NW swell west of the Baja 

peninsula into Fri. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas, 

primarily in SW swell, will prevail elsewhere. A trough will move

into Baja California and the northern Gulf of California Sat and

Sat night, followed by rough seas in NW swell Sun and Mon west 

of Baja California Norte. Strong SW gap winds and rough seas are 

possible late Sat over the northern Gulf of California ahead of 

the trough. Looking ahead, fresh NW winds and large swell will 

follow the trough and move into the waters off Baja California 

north of Cabo San Lazaro Sun through Mon night. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



A recent scatterometer satellite pass confirmed moderate to 

locally fresh winds are over and downstream the Gulf of Papagayo.

Light to gentle winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough.

The scatterometer pass also hinted strong gusts are likely

accompanying some of the isolated thunderstorms that were active

this past evening off Costa Rica, but have since dissipated for

now. Gentle to moderate winds are south of the monsoon trough. 

Seas are in the 5-7 ft range between Ecuador and the Galapagos 

Islands, reaching 8 ft south of the Galapagos Islands. Elsewhere,

seas are in the 4-5 ft range.



For the forecast, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms 

will persist over the offshore waters off Central America through

at least Sat. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the 

region through Sat, then diminish through Mon. Expect moderate to

rough seas in long period SW swell between Ecuador and the 

Galapagos Islands through Thu. Slight to moderate seas, primarily

in SW swell, will prevail elsewhere. 



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....



A ridge prevails over the waters north of 20N and west of 110W. 

The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the

vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate trade winds north of

the ITCZ and west of 120W. NW swell is bringing seas of 7-9 ft 

over the waters north of a line from 20N140W to 26N120W. Gentle 

to locally moderate winds and seas of 5-6 ft are noted elsewhere 

in a mix of swell. 



For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure 

over the waters north of 20N and low pressure in the vicinity of

the ITCZ will support moderate to fresh NE winds north of the 

ITCZ and west of 120W through early next week. The NW swell will

combine with seas from trade winds from 10N to 20N west of 130W 

through the latter part of the week. Looking ahead, N swell will

cover most of the area north of 20N early next week.



$$

Christensen