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AXPZ20 KNHC 151547

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1605 UTC Thu May 15 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

1500 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from a 1009 mb low pressure located

over northern Colombia near 10N75W to another 1010 mb low 

pressure situated near 09N99W to 08N120W. The ITCZ continues 

from 08N120W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated 

strong convection is active from 03N to 07N between the coast of

Colombia and 95W, and from 04N to 10N between 95W and 117W. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



A ridge extends from 1032 mb high pressure located near 35N140W 

southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands, while low pressure 

prevails over Mexico. The most recent scatterometer satellite 

passes indicated the pressure gradient between these features is 

supporting moderate to fresh NW winds off the Baja California 

peninsula, and fresh to strong NW winds off the coasts of Jalisco

and Colima. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere over the 

discussion waters, including in the Gulf of California. 

Altimeter data confirmed seas are in the 8 to 9 ft range off 

Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro, and 5 to 7 ft 

elsewhere off Baja California Sur. Seas of 4 to 6 ft are 

elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. Seas are 3 ft or less 

over the Gulf of California.



For the forecast, the weather pattern will support fresh winds 

west of the Baja California peninsula and off the coasts of 

Jalisco and Colima through late today, with large NW swell west 

of the Baja peninsula into Fri. Moderate or weaker winds and 

moderate seas, primarily in SW swell, will prevail elsewhere. A 

trough will move into Baja California and the northern Gulf of 

California Sat and Sat night, followed by rough seas in NW swell 

Sun and Mon west of Baja California Norte. Strong SW gap winds 

and rough seas are possible late Sat over the northern Gulf of 

California ahead of the trough. Looking ahead, fresh NW winds and

large swell will follow the trough and move into the waters off 

Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro Sun through Mon night. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



Latest scatterometer satellite pass confirmed moderate to locally

fresh winds are over and downstream the Gulf of Papagayo. Light 

to gentle winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Gentle

to moderate winds are south of the monsoon trough. Seas are in 

the 5 to 7 ft range between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, 

reaching 8 ft south of the Galapagos Islands. Elsewhere, seas are

in the 4 to 5 ft range.



For the forecast, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms 

will persist over the offshore waters off Central America through

at least Sat. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the 

region through Sat, then diminish through Mon. Expect moderate to

rough seas in long period SW swell between Ecuador and the 

Galapagos Islands today. Slight to moderate seas, primarily in 

SW swell, will prevail elsewhere. 



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....



A ridge prevails over the waters north of the ITCZ and west of 

110W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure 

in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to locally

fresh trade winds north of the ITCZ and west of 120W. Based on 

altimeter data, an area of 8 to 10 ft seas is noted W of a line 

from 27N140W to 20N128W to 16N140W due to mixed NE and NW swell.

Gentle to locally moderate winds and seas of 5 to 6 ft are noted

elsewhere in a mix of swell. 



For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure 

over the north waters and low pressure in the vicinity of the 

ITCZ will support moderate to fresh NE winds north of the ITCZ 

and west of 120W through early next week. The NW swell will 

combine with seas from trade winds from 10N to 20N west of 130W 

through the latter part of the week. Looking ahead, N swell will 

cover most of the area north of 20N early next week.



$$

GR