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AXNT20 KNHC 152147

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0015 UTC Fri May 16 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

2300 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Gale Warning E of 35W: The pressure gradient between high 

pressure of 1024 mb centered just NW of Madeira Island and 

relatively lower pressures in NW Africa has initiated gale-force 

N to NE winds in the eastern portion of the Meteo-France marine 

zone of Agadir. These conditions are forecast to last until 

16/00 UTC tonight. Please refer to the Meteo-France High Seas 

Forecast listed on their website https://wwmiws.wmo.int



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of 

Guinea Bissau near 11N15W and continues southwestward to 06N20W.

The ITCZ extends from 06N20W to 03N30W to 02N40W to 03N51W. 

Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from

the equator to 05N between 25W and 36W. Scattered moderate

convection is observed elsewhere from 00N to 05N between 11W and

25W, and from 03N to 07N between 40W and 51W. 



...GULF OF AMERICA...



A ridge dominates the Gulf waters. The pressure gradient between

the ridge and low pressure over Texas and NE Mexico is allowing 

for fresh to locally strong SE to S winds to exist over the NW 

Gulf while moderate to fresh SE to S winds are noted elsewhere, 

except in the NE part of the Gulf where light to gentle S to SW 

winds are present. Seas are 5 to 7 ft over the NW Gulf, and 3 to 

5 ft elsewhere over the western part of the basin. Lower seas of 

2 to 4 ft are over the eastern Gulf. Dry sinking air aloft is 

suppressing any deep convection from developing over the basin.



For the forecast, localized fresh to strong S to SE winds will 

pulse over the northwestern Gulf of America into this evening as 

a strong pressure gradient prevails between high pressure over 

the eastern basin and low pressure in the central United States. 

Through this weekend, moderate to fresh SE winds and generally 

moderate seas are expected west of 90W, with gentle to moderate 

SE to S winds and slight seas expected east of 90W. Pulsing fresh

E winds are likely each afternoon and evening north of the Yucatan

Peninsula as a trough develops daily and drifts westward.



...CARIBBEAN SEA... 



The pressure gradient between high pressure of 1028 mb located

over the central Atlantic near 33N54W and relatively lower 

pressures in the Caribbean and northern South America is 

maintaining moderate to fresh trades across the east and central

Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate 

winds prevail elsewhere with the exception of light to gentle NE 

to E winds in the lee of Cuba and in the Windward Passage. Both 

latest altimeter satellite data passes and buoy observations 

reveal seas of 4 to 6 ft over most of the region, including the 

Gulf of Honduras. Slightly higher seas of 5 to 7 ft are present 

in the south-central Caribbean. Lower seas of 1 to 3 ft are in 

the lee of Cuba, including the Windward Passage.



Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are noted over

the SW Caribbean mainly S of 12N likely associated with the

eastern extent of the EPAC monsoon trough. Similar convective 

activity has developed over Hispaniola, Jamaica and eastern 

Cuba.



For the forecast, fresh to locally strong E to SE winds will 

pulse in the Gulf of Honduras each afternoon and night through 

this weekend. Elsewhere, a mixed NE and SE swell will support 

rough seas across the tropical Atlantic waters and passages into 

the eastern Caribbean through this weekend. Moderate to fresh E 

winds can also be expected across this region. Otherwise, pulsing

fresh trade winds and moderate seas will prevail over the central

and eastern Caribbean through Fri as the subtropical ridge prevails

over the central Atlantic. The ridge will drift southeastward 

this weekend, supporting mainly moderate winds across the basin. 



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



A weakening frontal boundary extends from near 31N34W westward 

to 27N51W, and a surface trough is analyzed is this region. A 

narrow band of mainly low clouds, with possible showers is 

associated with this system. Gentle to moderate N to NE winds 

are in the wake of the trough with seas of 5 to 7 ft. High 

pressure dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast 

waters, with a 1028 mb high center located near 33N54W, and 

another high pressure cell of 1022 mb situated N of the Madeira 

Islands.  Gentle to moderate winds are seen per satellite 

derived wind data across most of the waters N of 20N while 

moderate to fresh trades dominate the tropical Atlantic. Seas 

are 6 to 9 ft E of the Lesser Antilles, and 5 to 8 ft elsewhere 

across the tropical Atlantic.  Moderate seas are noted 

elsewhere. 



For the forecast west of 55W, Moderate to locally fresh E to SE 

winds will pulse south of 25N and east of 75W, including areas 

just offshore of the Greater Antilles, through Fri as the 

subtropical ridge prevails over the central Atlantic. The ridge 

will drift southeastward this weekend, supporting gentle to 

moderate trade winds across this region into next week. Locally 

rough seas in mixed E and N swell are expected east of the Lesser

Antilles through this weekend. Elsewhere, moderate to locally 

fresh S to SW winds will develop offshore of central and northern

Florida tonight, and winds are expected to pulse through this 

weekend as troughing prevails over the Florida Peninsula. 

Otherwise, gentle to moderate trade winds and moderate seas are 

expected over the remainder of the waters. 



$$

GR