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AXPZ20 KNHC 160226

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0405 UTC Fri May 16 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

0200 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from a 1009 mb low pressure over 

northern Colombia to 10N84W to 07N124W. The ITCZ continues from 

07N124W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 

convection can be found from 03N to 11N and E of 118W. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



A surface ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja 

California extending SE to near the Revillagigedo Islands. This 

system supports moderate to fresh NW winds off the Baja 

California peninsula, with moderate seas. Gentle to moderate 

winds are blowing across the central and south parts of the Gulf 

of California. Elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters, 

including the northern Gulf of California, light winds prevail. 

Moderate seas are noted elsewhere except for slight seas in the 

Gulf of California. 



For the forecast, the ridge will continue to dominate the 

weather pattern across the offshore waters of Baja California 

through the upcoming weekend, supporting moderate to fresh NW 

winds and moderate to rough seas. Moderate or weaker winds and 

moderate seas, primarily in SW swell, will prevail elsewhere. A 

low pres is forecast to develop over the northern Gulf of 

California by Fri night producing fresh to strong S to SW winds 

through Sat night. Seas generated offshore waters of California 

by fresh to strong northerly winds will reach the waters N of 

Punta Eugenia Sun night into Mon. This swell event will continue 

to propagate southward, mainly across the waters between 118W and

130W on Tue.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



Recent scatterometer data indicate moderate NE winds downwind of

the Gulf of Papagayo and the coast of Nicaragua to near 100W. 

Light to gentle winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. 

Gentle to moderate winds are south of the monsoon trough. Winds 

and seas are higher near thunderstorms along the monsoon trough.

Moderate seas are between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, 

while rough seas prevail south and SW of the Galapagos Islands. 

Elsewhere, moderate seas prevail in SW swell.



For the forecast, abundant moisture drawn in by a very moist and

unstable southerly wind flow is expected to persist across the 

offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia through the 

upcoming weekend, supporting the development of showers and 

thunderstorms over this area. Gentle to moderate winds will 

prevail across the region through Sun, then diminish on Mon. 

Expect moderate to rough seas in long period SW swell between 

Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through tonight. Slight to 

moderate seas, primarily in SW swell, will prevail elsewhere. 



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....



A suffuse ridge prevails over the waters north of the ITCZ and 

west of 110W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower 

pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to 

fresh trade winds north of the ITCZ and west of 115W. Based on 

latest altimeter data, rough seas are noted from 10N to 26N W of

130W primarily in N swell. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate

seas are noted elsewhere in a mix of swell.



For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure 

over the north waters and low pressure in the vicinity of the 

ITCZ will continue to support moderate to fresh NE winds north 

of the ITCZ and west of 115W through early next week. The NW 

swell will combine with seas from trade winds from 10N to 20N 

west of 130W through at least Sat. A new swell event will reach 

the N waters Sun night into Mon, building rough seas N of 25N 

between 115W and 130W late on Mon. 



$$

ERA