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AXNT20 KNHC 160724

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0615 UTC Fri May 16 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

0425 UTC.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of 

The Gambia near 13N16W and continues southwestward to 06N23W. The

ITCZ extends from 06N23W to 02N35W and to 01N50W. Scattered 

moderate convection is observed from 03N to 07N and between 20W

and 38W.



...GULF OF AMERICA...



A weak ridge positioned over the NE Gulf waters maintains

generally tranquil weather conditions across the basin. Moderate

to locally fresh E-SE winds and moderate seas are noted in the

western half of the Gulf (west of 90W), while moderate or weaker

winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.



For the forecast, tighter pressure gradient between the surface ridge

over the eastern Gulf and lower pressure over eastern Mexico will

sustain moderate to fresh southeasterly winds and moderate seas at

the western Gulf through Tue. Pulsing fresh to locally strong E 

winds are likely each afternoon and evening north of the Yucatan 

Peninsula as a trough develops daily and drifts westward.



...CARIBBEAN SEA... 



Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are present over the

SW Caribbean, mainly S of 12N. The storm activity is associated 

with the eastern extent of the EPAC monsoon trough and plenty of

tropical moisture. Similar convective activity is impacting

Hispaniola and eastern Cuba, especially the southern coasts and

nearby waters. Fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are

occurring in the Gulf of Honduras. Farther east, the subtropical

ridge north of the islands supports moderate to locally fresh

easterly winds and moderate seas across much of the central and

eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight

to moderate seas prevail.



For the forecast, fresh to locally strong E to SE winds will 

pulse in the Gulf of Honduras each afternoon and night through Tue

night. Fresh ENE winds with moderate seas should linger at the 

south- central basin until late Fri morning, and occur at the lee 

of Cuba and near the Windward Passage on Fri and Sat nights. 

Starting Mon, easterly trade winds and swell will gradually build 

at the eastern basin, then spread westward into the southwestern 

basin. 



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



An extensive subtropical ridge centered near 33N52W dominates the

tropical Atlantic waters. Fresh easterly trade winds and moderate

seas are found off northern Hispaniola. The pressure gradient 

between this ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics support

moderate to fresh easterly winds south of 25N and between 35W and

65W. This was confirmed by a recent scatterometer satellite pass.

Seas in these waters are 5-9 ft. Farther north, a surface trough 

extends from 31N31W to 26N51W. Moderate northerly winds and seas 

of 6-10 ft are found behind the trough axis. In the eastern

Atlantic, especially east of 20W and north of 15N, fresh to

locally strong northerly winds and moderate to locally rough seas

are evident. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to

moderate seas are prevalent. 



For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to locally fresh ENE to E

winds will pulse north of Hispaniola and the Windward Passage 

each night through Sat night. Moderate to fresh easterly trade 

winds and rough seas are going to persist in the Atlantic waters 

near and east of the Lesser Antilles through Sun night. In the 

long run, a cold front moving off the Carolina coast will bring 

moderate to fresh SW winds and building seas north of 28N from Sat

night through Mon morning. 



$$

Delgado