####018004115####
AXPZ20 KNHC 160848

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1005 UTC Fri May 16 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

0830 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 06N130W. The ITCZ 

continues from 06N130W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate to 

isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 11N and E of 

119W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



A surface ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja 

California extending SE to near the Revillagigedo Islands. This 

system supports moderate to fresh NW winds off the Baja 

California peninsula, with moderate seas. Gentle to moderate 

winds are blowing across the central and south parts of the Gulf 

of California. Elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters, 

including the northern Gulf of California, light winds prevail. 

Moderate seas are noted elsewhere except for slight seas in the 

Gulf of California. 



For the forecast, the ridge will continue to dominate the 

weather pattern across the offshore waters of Baja California 

through the upcoming weekend, supporting moderate to fresh NW 

winds and moderate to rough seas. Moderate or weaker winds and 

moderate seas, primarily in SW swell, will prevail elsewhere. A 

low pres is forecast to develop near the northern Gulf of 

California by tonight producing fresh to strong S to SW winds 

through Sat night. Rough seas will develop over the offshore 

waters of California by fresh to strong northerly winds, reaching  

the waters N of Punta Eugenia Sun night into Mon. The swell will

continue to propagate southward, mainly across the waters 

between 118W and 130W on Tue.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



Moderate NE winds prevail in the Gulf of Papagayo region. Light 

to gentle winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Gentle

to moderate winds are south of the monsoon trough. Winds and 

seas are higher near thunderstorms along the monsoon trough. 

Moderate seas are between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, 

while rough seas prevail south and SW of the Galapagos Islands. 

Elsewhere, moderate seas prevail in SW swell.



For the forecast, abundant moisture drawn in by a very moist and

unstable southerly wind flow is expected to persist across the 

offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia through the 

upcoming weekend, supporting the development of showers and 

thunderstorms over this area. Gentle to moderate winds will 

prevail across the region through Sun, then diminish on Mon. 

Slight to moderate seas, primarily in SW swell, will prevail 

elsewhere. 



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....



A surface ridge prevails over the waters north of the ITCZ and 

west of 115W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower 

pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to 

fresh trade winds north of the ITCZ and west of 115W, and a small

area of strong winds W of 138W. Rough seas are noted from 10N to

26N W of 130W primarily in N swell. Another area of rough seas is

noted N of 28N and E of 125W. Gentle to moderate winds and 

moderate seas are noted elsewhere in a mix of swell.



For the forecast, the pressure gradient will continue to support

moderate to fresh NE winds north of the ITCZ and west of 115W 

through early next week. The NW swell will combine with seas from

trade winds from 10N to 20N west of 130W through at least Sat. A

new swell event will reach the N waters Sun night into Mon, 

building rough seas N of 25N between 115W and 130W by late Mon.





$$

ERA