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AXPZ20 KNHC 161548

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1605 UTC Fri May 16 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

1500 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from a 1010 mb low pressure located

over northern Colombia near 10N75W to 07N93W to 09N110W to

06N123W. The ITCZ continues from 06N123W to beyond 05N140W. 

Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 07N and E of 

88W to the coast of Colombia, and from 05N to 11N between 90W and

130W. Similar convective activity is from 11N to 14N between 89W

and 93W. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



A surface ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja 

California extending SE to near the Revillagigedo Islands. This 

system supports moderate to locally fresh NW winds off the Baja 

California peninsula, with moderate seas. Gentle to moderate 

winds are blowing across the central and south parts of the Gulf 

of California. Elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters, 

including the northern Gulf of California, light winds prevail. 

Moderate seas are noted elsewhere except for slight seas in the 

Gulf of California. 



For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the weather 

pattern across the offshore waters of Baja California through the

upcoming weekend, supporting moderate to fresh NW winds and 

moderate to rough seas. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate 

seas, primarily in SW swell, will prevail elsewhere. A low pres 

is forecast to develop near the northern Gulf of California by 

tonight producing fresh to strong S to SW winds through Sat 

night. Rough seas generated by fresh to strong northerly winds 

offshore California will reach the waters N of Punta Eugenia Sun 

night into Mon. This swell event will continue to propagate 

southward, mainly across the waters between 118W and 130W on Tue.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



Latest satellite derived wind data indicate moderate to fresh E

to SE winds across the Papagayo region and downwind to about 87W.  

Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere across the offshore 

forecast waters, with moderate seas in SW swell. Winds and seas 

are higher near thunderstorms along the monsoon trough. 



For the forecast, abundant moisture drawn in by a very moist and

unstable southerly wind flow is expected to persist across the 

offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia through the 

upcoming weekend, supporting the development of showers and 

thunderstorms over this area. Gentle to moderate winds will 

prevail across the region through Sun, then diminish on Mon. 

Slight to moderate seas, primarily in SW swell, will prevail 

elsewhere. 



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....



A surface ridge prevails over the waters north of the ITCZ and 

west of 110W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower 

pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong

winds from 11N to 26N W of 130W based on latest scatterometer 

data. Rough seas are within these winds. Gentle to moderate winds

and moderate seas are noted elsewhere in a mix of swell.



For the forecast, the pressure gradient will continue to support

moderate to fresh NE winds north of the ITCZ and west of 125W 

through early next week. The NW swell will combine with wind

waves to keep and area of rough seas over the west-central 

waters this upcoming weekend, particularly from 10N to 20N west 

of 130W. A new swell event will reach the N waters Sun night 

into Mon, building seas to 10 or 11 ft rough seas N of 25N 

between 118W and 130W by Mon night.



$$

GR