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AXNT20 KNHC 220544

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0615 UTC Tue Apr 22 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

0600 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



East Atlantic Gale Warning: Meteo-France has issued a Gale 

Warning along with rough to very rough seas for their AGADIR 

Marine Zone, beginning at 22/0900 UTC and continuing through 

23/0000 UTC. Please see the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST and WARNING 

issued by Meteo- France at website:



https://wwmiws.wmo.int for more information.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea

near 10N14W and continues to 03N19W. The ITCZ extends from 03N19W

to 03S40W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 06N 

and east of 27W.



...GULF OF AMERICA...



A stationary front is lifting northward across the southern US, 

producing scattered showers across the north-central Gulf waters.

The rest of the basin is under the influence of a strong 

subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic. Moderate to locally 

strong easterly winds and 3-6 ft seas are found south of 25N and 

east of 94W. Light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail 

elsewhere.



For the forecast, high pressure centered NE of the area will 

bringing mainly moderate SE winds and relatively tranquil marine 

conditions to the basin through the week. One exception is off the

NW Yucatan Peninsula where pulses of strong winds are expected as

a diurnal trough moves into the waters. 



...CARIBBEAN SEA... 



The interaction between a 1027 mb high pressure system in the 

western Atlantic and relatively low pressure in South America is 

supporting fresh to strong easterly trade winds across the central

Caribbean, lee of Cuba, Gulf of Honduras, and the northern

Caribbean Passages. Seas of 6-9 ft are noted in the central and

northern Caribbean, while seas of 3-6 ft are found in the lee of 

Cuba and Gulf of Honduras. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to 

moderate seas are prevalent in the remainder of the basin.



For the forecast, high pressure north of the basin will support 

pulsing fresh to strong NE winds across the central and western 

Caribbean into midweek. The high will then shift eastward which 

will loosen the pressure gradient and diminish winds through late 

week. Large northerly swell impacting the Mona and Anegada 

passages will gradually subside by Tue. Gentle to moderate winds 

and slight to moderate seas will then prevail through the weekend.



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



Please see the Special Features section above for information on 

gale-force winds in the far eastern Atlantic.



A surface trough extends from 29N58W to 15N57W, producing 

scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 18N and 

between 42W and 60W. To the north, a pair of highs extend ridging

across the remainder of the basin. The pressure gradient between

these ridges and the trough supports fresh to strong SE winds

between 52W and the trough and north of 18N, along with seas of 6-8

ft. To the west of the trough, fresh to strong NE winds and seas

of 6-10 ft are observed in a region between the trough and areas S

of a line running from the Florida Keys to about 31N67W, including

the Windward Passage and Mona Passage as well as the Florida 

Straits. Moderate to locally fresh E to NE winds and 3-6 ft seas

are observed N of the aforementioned line. 



The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a 1028 mb 

high pressure system centered south of the Azores. Recent

scatterometer data show fresh to strong E to NE winds occurring N

of 17N and E of 35W, where seas are 7-11 ft. Moderate to fresh E

winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere.



For the forecast west of 55W, the pressure gradient between a 

surface trough along 58W and high pressure centered just NW of 

Bermuda will continue to support fresh to strong NE winds and 

rough seas over Atlantic waters E of 70W, as well as S of 25W, 

including the Bahamas and Greater Antilles, through midweek. These

features will weaken late this week, loosening the pressure 

gradient and leading to improving marine conditions for the end of

the week. 



$$

Adams