####018003777####
AXPZ20 KNHC 230945

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1005 UTC Wed Apr 23 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

0930 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Panama near 08N78W 

and continues to 09N88W to 04N103W. The ITCZ extends from there 

to 07N122W to beyond 03N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated 

strong convection is noted from 02N to 10N E of 93W. Scattered 

moderate convection is occurring from 03N to 10N W of 114W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



A weak ridge of high pressure extends across the Baja California

offshore waters, supporting moderate or weaker winds across all 

of the waters. Locally moderate SW winds are ongoing over the 

northern Gulf of California N of 28N due to the southern 

extension of a surface trough. Seas are 5-6 ft in mixed NW and SW

swell over the Pacific waters, and 1-2 ft along the Gulf of 

California.



For the forecast, the weak ridge of high pressure will dominate the

Mexican offshore waters for the next few days, continuing the

quiescent wind and wave conditions. Looking ahead, a stronger

pressure gradient will increase NW winds along the Baja

California peninsula to fresh to locally strong beginning on Fri

night through the weekend. Fresh to strong gap winds are also

possible in Tehuantepec Sat night and Sun.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to affect 

the offshore waters of Panama, Costa Rica and Colombia. A strong

ridge over the W Atlantic and NW Caribbean is forcing fresh to

strong NE to E winds over the Gulf of Papagayo region, reaching 

downwind to 88W per recent scatterometer data. The scatterometer

also show fresh to strong southerly wind S of the monsoon trough

over the Costa Rica offshore waters. Elsewhere, winds are 

moderate or weaker. Seas are 4-7 ft in SW swell.



For the forecast, NE to E gap winds are expected to pulse to fresh to

strong over the Gulf of Papagayo region through today, then to 

moderate to fresh at night through the weekend. Otherwise, 

moderate or weaker winds will prevail over the Central American 

and equatorial Pacific offshore zones through Sun night. Looking 

ahead, moderate S swell should impact the equatorial zones on Sat

and Sun.



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....



A 1031 mb high pressure is located at 40N142W with a ridge 

extending southeastward across the subtropical waters and into 

the tropics to about 15N. A modest pressure gradient between the 

ridge and lower pressure over the ITCZ is forcing moderate to 

fresh NE trades from 03N to 17N west of 120W with 7-9 ft seas in

mixed swell. Elsewhere, winds are gentle or weaker with 5-7 ft 

in mixed N and SW swell.



For the forecast, little change in winds is expected through the

end of the week. Looking ahead, a weak cold front should reach 

our N border on Fri night and Sat, but only accompanied by 

moderate winds. After the passage of the cold front, the ridge 

will shift southeastward, enhancing the area of fresh trades Sat

and Sun. A moderate S swell is anticipated to reach our S border

east of 120W beginning on Thu night and continuing until Sat 

night.



$$

Ramos