####018003886####
AXNT20 KNHC 231025

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1215 UTC Wed Apr 23 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

0930 UTC.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 11N15W, and 

continues southwestward to 06N20W, where it transitions to the 

ITCZ and extends southwestward to near 03S42W. Scattered moderate

convection is seen from 00N-03N between 22W-33W.



...GULF OF AMERICA...

 

Ridging prevails across the Gulf. Fresh ENE winds in the SW Gulf

are being driven by a surface trough moving off the west coast of

the Yucatan Peninsula. Otherwise, moderate winds prevail over the

southern two-thirds of the Gulf with light to gentle winds to the

north. Seas are 4 to 7 ft in the southern basin and 2 to 4 ft in

the northern third.



For the forecast, high pressure centered NE of the area will bring

mainly gentle SE winds and relatively tranquil marine conditions

to the NE half of the basin into the weekend. The SW Gulf will 

experience moderate fresh east to southeast winds during this same

period, locally pulsing to strong off the NW Yucatan Peninsula 

each night as a diurnal trough affects the waters.



...CARIBBEAN SEA... 



The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and 

a 1009 mb Colombian low is forcing fresh to locally strong NE to 

E winds over the S Central Caribbean, over the Windward and Mona 

Passages, as well as downwind of Hispaniola. A surface trough just

east of the Lesser Antilles is disrupting the trades, causing

winds to only be gentle over the E Caribbean. Seas are 6-8 ft 

over the SW Caribbean and 3-6 ft elsewhere.



For the forecast, high pressure centered north of the basin will

support pulsing fresh to locally strong NE winds across the 

central and western Caribbean today. The high will gradually 

shift eastward which will loosen the pressure gradient and 

diminish winds through late week. Moderate winds and slight to 

moderate seas will then prevail over the weekend. 



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



The surface low that had been near 25N60W has opened and become

part of the broader surface trough early this morning. This trough

is oriented along 60W between 20N and 30N. Over the northern

portion of the trough, the pressure gradient between it and the

subtropical ridge to the N is leading to fresh to strong E winds N

of 25N between 50W and 68W, along with rough seas. Scattered

moderate convection, mainly induced by upper level divergence on

the east side of the associated mid and upper level trough, is

present N of 25N between 50W and 60W, where some locally near-gale

force winds are likely in the stronger thunderstorms. Moderate to

fresh NE winds prevail over the Bahamas, Greater Antilles, and

Florida Straits, otherwise moderate or weaker winds dominate the

remaining areas W of the surface trough. To the E, widespread

moderate to fresh easterly trades dominate with seas of 5 to 8 ft. 

Areas E of 20W and N of 20N are seeing fresh to strong NE winds, 

locally near gale-force between the Canary Islands. Moderate or 

weaker winds and moderate seas are E of 20W and S of 20N.



For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned strong winds and

rough seas N of 25N and E of 67W will continue today, but 

gradually diminish starting tonight as the trough weakens and the 

pressure gradient relaxes into into the weekend.



$$

Konarik