####018005870####
AXNT20 KNHC 231950 CCA

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1815 UTC Wed Apr 23 2025



Corrected Atlantic Ocean section



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

1745 UTC.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of 

Guinea Bissau near new, and continues southwestward to 05N21W, 

where it transitions to the ITCZ, and continues to 01N30W and to 

near 02S43W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is 

within north of the ITCZ between 25W-32W. Scattered moderate 

convection is along and just south of the Equator from 42W to just

inland the coast of Brazil, and within 120 nm south of the ITCZ 

between 21W-27W.



...GULF OF AMERICA...

 

High pressure ridging extends from the westward Atlantic westward

across the eastern and central Gulf section. The related gradient 

is generally supporting gentle to moderate winds across the basin,

except for fresh east to southeast winds in the central and 

eastern Bay of Campeche that are being enhanced by a trough

that recently moved off the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. 

Both buoy and altimeter satellite data passes show seas of 

3 to 5 ft, except for slightly higher seas of 4 to 6 ft in the 

central Gulf and lower seas of 2 to 4 ft in the north-central 

and NE Gulf sections.



Both doppler radar displays and satellite imagery are showing 

rapidly increasing clusters of scattered to numerous thunderstorms

over the NW Gulf, reaching to along the central and NE Texas 

coast. This activity is being enhanced by a mid-level shortwave 

trough that is crossing eastern Texas. Expect gusty winds and 

rough seas with this activity.



For the forecast, high pressure centered northeast of the Gulf

will bring mainly gentle SE winds and relatively tranquil marine 

conditions to the NE half of the basin into the weekend. The 

southern and western Gulf will experience moderate to fresh east 

to southeast winds during this same period, locally pulsing to 

strong off the NW Yucatan Peninsula each night as a diurnal trough

affects the waters.



...CARIBBEAN SEA... 



The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and 

a 1009 mb Colombian low is currently allowing for mostly fresh 

northeast to east winds to exist in the south-central Caribbean, 

in the Windward and south of Hispaniola from 15N to 18N between 

70W and 73W. A trough that is analyzed from just east of the 

Lesser Antilles to the far eastern part of the basin continues to

disrupt the trades, causing winds to only be gentle over the E 

Caribbean. Seas are in the range of 3 to 6 ft, except for 

slightly higher seas of 5 to 7 ft in the south-central and 

southwestern sections of the sea.



Satellite imagery depicts ample deep moisture over the eastern 

and southeastern sections of the seas due instability related to 

a jet stream branch located there. Scattered showers and 

isolated thunderstorms are possible underneath these clouds, 

namely southeast of a line from the Leeward Islands to 15N67W 

and to the Gulf of Venezuela.



For the forecast, high pressure centered north of the basin will 

support pulsing fresh to strong northeast winds in the Windward 

Passage, south of Cuba, and offshore Colombia at night. Moderate 

or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere

through the weekend. Scattered showers are possible over the 

eastern Caribbean during the next couple of days to the east of a 

trough that is over the northeast part of the basin.



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...Corrected



A broad surface trough is the dominant noted feature that covers

the area from 17N to 29N between 52W and 67W, with a mean trough

axis roughly extending from 29N59W to 22N61W and to near the

Leeward Islands. A tight pressure gradient between it and the 

subtropical ridge to the north is allowing for fresh to strong

east winds north of 25N between 52W and 67W along with seas 

of 8 to 11 ft. An area of mostly moderate rain, with embedded

scattered showers and thunderstorms is noted to the east of 

the trough axis from 25N to 30N between 52W and 59W. Scattered 

showers and isolated thunderstorms are to the south, from 23N to 

25N between 53W and 57W. All of this activity is being mainly 

sustained by upper-level divergence found on the east side of 

the associated mid and upper-level trough that is noted on water 

vapor imagery to be north of about 25N and between 50W and 61W, 

where some locally near-gale force winds are likely in the more 

intense convection. Otherwise, moderate to fresh northeast winds 

continue over the Bahamas, Greater Antilles, and Straits of 

Florida. Moderate or lighter winds are elsewhere west of the 

surface trough. To the east of the surface trough, widespread 

moderate to fresh easterly trades dominate those waters with 

seas of 5 to 8 ft, with the exception of east of 20W and north 

of 20N where fresh to strong northeast winds are present. 

Moderate or lighter winds along with moderate seas are east of 

about 20W and south of 20N.



For the forecast west of 55W, the above described winds 

associated to the aforementioned surface trough will continue 

today, but gradually diminish beginning tonight as the trough 

weakens and the pressure gradient relaxes into the weekend.



$$

Aguirre