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AXNT20 KNHC 240543

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0615 UTC Thu Apr 24 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

0600 UTC.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and

extends to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to 01N50W. 

Strong convection is emerging off the coast of Liberia and Cote 

d'Ivoire, north of 01N and east of 14W. Widely scattered moderate

convection is occurring from 03S to 04N between 17W and 37W. 



...GULF OF AMERICA...

 

Ridging extends over the Gulf of America, supporting moderate to

fresh E to SE winds over much of the Gulf S of 27N, with moderate

or weaker winds elsewhere. Seas are generally 2-5 ft, with the

exception of the waters just offshore the northern Yucatan

Peninsula, where seas are analyzed at 5-6 ft. Scattered showers

are occurring in portions of the NE Gulf N of 26N and W of 88W.



For the forecast, high pressure ridging just NE of the Gulf will 

bring mainly gentle SE winds and relatively tranquil marine 

conditions to the NE half of the basin through the weekend. The 

southern and western Gulf will experience moderate to fresh east 

to southeast winds during this same period, locally pulsing to 

strong off the NW Yucatan Peninsula each night through Fri night 

as a diurnal trough affects the waters.



...CARIBBEAN SEA... 



Moderate to locally fresh NE winds are occurring through the 

Windward Passage, as well as offshore of northwestern Colombia, as

the result of a pressure gradient between high pressure to the 

north and a 1008 mb low over northwestern Colombia. Seas of 4 to 6

ft are noted in the central Caribbean in association with these 

winds. Two troughs are noted in the eastern Caribbean; the first 

extends from 31N58W southwestward to the far eastern coast of 

Puerto Rico, and the second that extends from 21N57W through the 

Lesser Antilles to about 12N63W. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate 

trade winds and seas of 2 to 5 ft prevail across the rest of the 

basin, aside from portions of the NW Caribbean off the coasts of 

the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize where E winds are moderate to 

locally fresh.



For the forecast, high pressure ridging north of the basin will 

support pulsing fresh NE winds in the Windward Passage, south of 

Cuba, and offshore Colombia at night into the weekend. Moderate or

weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere 

into early next week.



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



A surface trough extends from 31N58W southwestward through the

Leeward Islands, while ridging extends from a 1030 mb high 

centered north of the area. Another surface trough extends from

the Lesser Antilles to about 21N57W. The pressure gradient 

between these features is supporting fresh to locally strong E to 

SE winds east of 60W to 50W, with fresh to locally strong NE winds

occurring from 60W to 75W, generally north of 20N. Rough seas of 

8 to 10 prevail in this region from 23N, northward, between 53W 

and 70W. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are 

occurring around these troughs in a region from 48W to 64W and

north of 13N.



Otherwise, fresh to locally strong NE winds continue over the 

Bahamas, Greater Antilles, and Straits of Florida. Moderate to

fresh winds are elsewhere west of the Leeward Islands trough. To 

the east of both surface troughs, widespread moderate to fresh 

trade winds dominate those waters with seas of 5 to 8 ft, with the

exception of east of 20W and north of 10N where fresh to strong 

NE winds are present. 



For the forecast west of 55W, a surface trough extends from near 

30N58W south- southwestward to the Virgin Islands. A tight 

pressure gradient between the northern portions of this trough and

the subtropical ridge to the north is leading to fresh to locally

strong E winds and rough seas N of 23N and E of 70W. Fresh NE 

winds will continue on the NW side of the trough through Fri as 

the trough remains nearly stationary. Winds should should diminish

by the weekend as the pressure gradient relaxes. Looking ahead, a

cold front may move southward, between Florida and 65W, late 

Sunday into Monday followed by moderate to fresh N to NE winds. 



$$

Adams