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AXPZ20 KNHC 240930

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1005 UTC Thu Apr 24 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

0920 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough enters the Pacific along the coast of Panama 

near 07N78W and extends to 08N91W to 05N101W. The ITCZ continues

from 05N101W to 06N125W to beyond 03N140W. A second ITCZ extends

from 02S120W to beyond 06S140W. Scattered moderate convection is

occurring from 03N to 08N between 78W and 100W, from 05N to 07N 

between 92W and 97W, and from 02N to 09N between 105W and 137W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



The resultant pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge and

a surface trough along the Baja California Peninsula continues to

support moderate to fresh NW winds across the peninsula offshores

and the Jalisco adjacent waters. The trough is also supporting

moderate to fresh SW winds in the northern Gulf of California.

Seas over these waters are in the 5-6 ft range, except to 3 ft

along the Gulf. Otherwise, light to gentle winds prevail

elsewhere with seas to 6 ft in SW swell. 



For the forecast, fresh NW winds will pulse in the bays offshore

of Baja California and near Cabo San Lucas each night and 

morning into early next week. Pulsing fresh to locally strong SW

winds can also be expected in the northern Gulf of California

through Sat. Looking ahead, occasional fresh to strong N winds 

will develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec this weekend. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



With a frontal boundary moving across the Carolinas offshores,

the pressure gradient over the western Caribbean has diminished,

thus resulting in only moderate to fresh E winds in the Papagayo

region where seas are up to 6 ft. Moderate to fresh NNE winds are

also ongoing in the Gulf of Panama N of 05N where seas are also 

in the 4-6 ft range. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and 

moderate seas in SW swell prevail. 



For the forecast, fresh to strong E winds are expected into this

morning in the Gulf of Papagayo, then moderate to fresh NE to E 

winds will pulse through early next week. Moderate to fresh NNE 

winds will also pulse in the Gulf of Panama, reaching as far 

south as 04N. Seas will be moderate in both gulfs the entire 

forecast period. Looking ahead, S to SW swell will move into the 

waters offshore of Ecuador this weekend, leading to 7-8 ft seas 

near the Galapagos Islands. 



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....



A 1029 mb high centered north of the area near 39N156W extends 

ridging through the eastern Pacific waters north of the ITCZ. 

This set up continue to force a fetch of moderate to fresh NE 

winds from just N of the ITCZ to about 18N and W of 115W where 

recent altimeter data depict 6-8 ft seas. Locally moderate or 

weaker winds prevail elsewhere along with moderate seas.



For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will occur 

across the tropical watersw W of 120W this weekend as a broad

surface ridge will prevail across the eastern Pacific subtropical

waters. Rough seas to 8-9 ft will occur in tandem with these 

winds. Fresh winds will expand farther north to 30N this weekend 

as a weakening cold front drifts southward through the northern 

waters. Elsewhere, SW swell will produce rough seas to 8 ft south

of the equator Thu night through Sat. 



$$

Ramos