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AXNT20 KNHC 242324

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0015 UTC Fri Apr 25 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

2300 UTC.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and

extends to 02N26W. The ITCZ extends from 01N29W to 02S45W.

Numerous moderate to strong convection is occurring from the 

equator to 07N between 10W and 25W. 



...GULF OF AMERICA...

 

A 1021 mb high is centered near 29N84W, and ridging covers the 

Gulf of America. Moderate to fresh E to NE winds are occurring 

through the Florida Straits and offshore northwestern Cuba as a 

strengthening pressure gradient develops between the high pressure

in the northeastern Gulf and prevailing low pressure over 

northwestern Colombia. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh E to NE winds 

are noted offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula, near the northern 

periphery of a trough that spans the western peninsula. Otherwise,

moderate SE winds prevail over much of the Gulf, with locally 

fresh SE winds occurring west of 93W. Seas of 3 to 6 ft are noted 

over much of the basin, with 1 to 3 ft seas prevalent in the 

northeastern Gulf. 



For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will dominate the Gulf

waters the remainder of the week into the upcoming weekend 

supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds and moderate seas. 

Winds will pulse to fresh speeds over the east and central Bay of 

Campeche due to local effects related to a thermal trough, and in 

the Straits of Florida due to a 1028 mb high pressure located 

over the Mid-Atlantic States.



...CARIBBEAN SEA... 



A 1009 mb low is centered over northwestern Colombia, and ridging

extends through much of the basin, extending from widespread high

pressure to the north. This pattern is supporting fresh to 

locally strong NE winds and seas near 5 to 6 ft just offshore of 

northwestern Colombia, fresh NE winds through the Windward 

Passage, and locally fresh E winds in the Gulf of Honduras. 

Elsewhere, a trough has been analyzed from 19N61W to 12N64W in the

far eastern Caribbean, supporting moderate to locally fresh E to 

SE winds to the east of the trough axis, and gentle to moderate 

winds to the west, along with seas of 2 to 4 ft. Otherwise, 

moderate trade winds and seas of 2 to 5 ft prevail across the 

remainder of the Caribbean.



For the forecast, high pressure north of the basin combined with 

the Colombian low will support fresh to locally strong trade winds

offshore Colombia at night into the weekend. At the same time, 

pulsing moderate to locally fresh NE winds are expected in the 

Windward Passage, and south of Cuba. Moderate or weaker winds and 

slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere into early next 

week. 



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



A trough extends from 31N58W southwestward to 20N68W, north of 

the Mona Passage, while high pressure prevails to the north. 

Moderate to fresh NE winds are occurring to the north and west of 

the trough axis including through the Bahamas and the Florida 

Straits. Associated seas of 6 to 8 ft in NE swell are found north 

of 20N and east of the Bahamas. To the east of the trough, 

moderate to fresh SE to E winds, with localized strong winds, are 

noted. Seas in this area range from 6 to 8 ft in mixed E and N 

swell. Elsewhere, a broad ridge prevails across the Atlantic, 

centered on a 1029 mb high near 36N37W. Recent scatterometer 

satellite data show moderate to fresh trade winds and seas of 6 to

9 ft are occurring across the waters S of 25N between 30W and 

55W. East of 25W, moderate to fresh N to NE winds, with localized 

strong winds noted near the Cabo Verde Islands, are occurring with

seas of 5 to 8 ft. 



For the forecast west of 55W, a tight pressure gradient between 

the aforementioned trough and high pressure of 1028 mb located 

over the Mid-Atlantic States will support fresh to locally strong 

NE winds and rough seas N of 23N between 60W and 70W through Fri 

as the trough remains nearly stationary. Winds should diminish by 

the weekend as the pressure gradient relaxes. Looking ahead, a 

cold front may move southward, between Florida and 65W, late 

Sunday into Monday followed by moderate to fresh N to NE winds. 



$$

ADAMS