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AXNT20 KNHC 251038

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1215 UTC Fri Apr 25 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

1020 UTC.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of

Senegal at 13N16W and continues southwestward to 01N22W. The ITCZ

extends from 01N22W to 01N35W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate to 

isolated strong convection is observed from 04S to 09N between 08W

and 27W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere within 150 nm

either side of the ITCZ. 



...GULF OF AMERICA...

 

High pressure of 1026 mb located over the NW Atlantic waters

extend a ridge SW across most of the Gulf while a surface trough

came off the Yucatan Peninsula earlier tonight and now it moves

across the eastern Bay of Campeche. The resultant pressure

gradient between these features is supporting moderate to fresh E

to SE winds basin-wide along with moderate seas W of 87W per 

SOFAR buoys and oil platforms data. Otherwise, slight seas are

present E of 87W.



For the forecast, a ridge will dominate the Gulf waters the 

remainder of the week into the upcoming weekend supporting gentle 

to moderate E to SE winds and moderate seas. Winds will pulse to 

fresh to strong speeds over the east and central Bay of Campeche 

through Tue night due to local effects related to a thermal trough

coming off the Yucatan Peninsula. Winds of moderate to fresh 

speeds are forecast in the Straits of Florida through the period 

due to prevalent high pressure NE of the area. 



...CARIBBEAN SEA... 



The combination of abundant moisture in the eastern Caribbean and

divergence aloft results in widespread cloudiness and scattered 

showers over that area.



The pressure gradient between a 1026 mb high pressure in the NW 

Atlantic and lower pressures in northern Colombia supports fresh 

to locally strong NE-E winds off NW Colombia, and moderate to

fresh NE winds in the Windward Passage and lee of Cuba. Seas in 

these regions are 4-6 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and

slight to moderate seas prevail.



For the forecast, high pressure north of the basin combined with 

the Colombian low will support fresh to locally strong trade winds

offshore Colombia at night through early Sat. Moderate to fresh 

NE winds are expected in the Windward Passage and the lee side of 

Cuba through Tue night. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds and 

slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere into early next 

week. 



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



The subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of an expansive 

1028 mb high pressure centered a few hundred miles southwest of 

the Azores and its associated ridge. The ridge is weakened by a

pair of surface troughs located just NNE of Puerto Rico. The

pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge in the NW 

Atlantic and lower pressures associated with the troughs supports 

fresh to locally strong NE-E winds over much of the SW North 

Atlantic, especially between 60W and 75W. Seas in these waters 

are 5-9 ft. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and rough seas to 9 ft

are present over much of the subtropical waters E of 45W as well

as across the tropical waters E of 52W. 



For the forecast west of 55W, the pressure gradient between high 

pressure over the NW Atlantic and a surface trough to the N of 

Puerto Rico will continue to support fresh to locally strong NE 

winds and rough seas N of 23N between 60W and 70W through tonight.

Looking ahead, a cold front may move southward, between Florida 

and 65W, late Sunday into Monday followed by moderate to fresh N 

to NE winds. 



$$

Ramos