####018005182#### AXPZ20 KNHC 252116 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Apr 25 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N75W to 08N85W to 08.5N96W to 06N114W. The ITCZ continues from 06N114W to beyond 04.5N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 01N to 08N east of 87W, and from 03N to 07.5N between 88W and 99W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 08N between 102W and 139W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01.5S to 03S between 95.5W and 100W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Satellite scatterometer data from around midday showed gentle to moderate N-NW winds the Baja California near and offshore waters, becoming northerly across the Revillagigedo Islands. Seas across the Baja waters are 4 to 6 ft in mixed SW and NW swell. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico from the Revillagigedo Islands to Tehuantepec, where seas are 4 to 5 ft. Gentle to moderate cyclonic winds are in the northern Gulf of California, with light to gentle winds elsewhere in the Gulf. Seas inside the Gulf are 2 to 4 ft north portions, 4 to 5 ft in SW swell across the entrance, and 3 ft or less elsewhere. For the forecast, Pacific high pressure centered well NW of the area along 146W will drift slowly eastward through the weekend. A weak cold front will move into the Baja Norte waters Sat and dissipate across the central Baja waters Sun, allowing the high pressure to build modestly across the Baja waters through Mon. Moderate NW winds across the Baja waters early this afternoon will increase to fresh winds late Sat through late Mon. Fresh to strong SW winds will pulse in the northern Gulf of California tonight and Sat night. N winds in the central Gulf of Tehuantepec will pulse fresh to occasional strong at night through this weekend. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Satellite scatterometer data from around midday showed moderate to locally fresh E gap winds across the Papagayo region extending offshore to near 120 nm, and moderate N winds across the Gulf of Panama to 05N. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere, except for moderate southerly winds between the Galapagos Islands and southern Colombia fueling active convection there. Seas are in the 5-6 ft range in new S-SW swell, except 6 to 8 ft SW through SE of the Galapagos Islands. Scattered moderate thunderstorms are active within 75 nm of the coast of Guatemala, while scattered moderate to strong thunderstorms prevail across the near and offshore waters of western Panama and Costa Rica and extend south and southeast to coastal Colombia. For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure extending southwestward across the eastern Gulf of America and NW Caribbean will persist into early next week to maintain moderate gap wind flow across the regional Pacific waters. Moderate to fresh E winds will pulse across the Papagayo region each night and morning into next week. In the Gulf of Panama, moderate to locally fresh winds will pulse nightly into Sat, with generally moderate winds expected thereafter. New cross equatorial S-SW swell is entering the regional waters today and will peak late Sat through Sun. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA.... High pressure dominates the waters N of 10N, centered on a 1030 mb high near 39N146W. An associated broad ridge extends S and SE between 105W and 160W. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh NE trade winds N of the ITCZ to near 22N W of 125W. Seas over these waters are in the 6-9 ft range. Gentle to moderate N to NE winds, and seas of 5-6 ft, prevail S of the high center, N of 21N and W of 120W. Gentle winds, and seas of 5-6 ft are elsewhere over the discussion waters. For the forecast, the high center NW of the area will drift slowly eastward through the weekend, and reach along 135W on Mon. This is expected to yield a slight increase in winds across the trade wind zone Sat through Mon, with rough seas developing there. Cross equatorial S swell will propagate into the southern waters today through the weekend, raising seas to 8-9 ft to the south of 10N between 100W and 120W through late Sat before seas slowly subside through Sun. Locally fresh N to NW winds and rough seas will develop tonight north of 27N behind a cold front sweeping across the northern waters, and reaching 120W by midday Sat. $$ Stripling